2020 United States Senate election in Iowa

November 3, 2020
 
Nominee Joni Ernst Theresa Greenfield
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 864,997 754,859
Percentage 51.74% 45.15%

Ernst:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Greenfield:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%

U.S. senator before election

Joni Ernst
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Joni Ernst
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2.[1]

Most experts and pollsters considered this race and the concurrent presidential race as a tossup due to incumbent president Donald Trump's low approval ratings and Ernst's own popularity dropping in polls, partly due to a viral moment in a debate where she did not know the price of corn.[2] Despite this, Ernst was reelected by a larger-than-expected 6.6 points, while Trump simultaneously won the state with a similarly unexpected margin of victory. Ernst carried an overwhelming majority of the state's counties including many rural ones, while Greenfield carried only eight counties: Polk, Linn, Scott, Johnson, Black Hawk, Story, Cerro Gordo and Jefferson.[3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Joni Ernst
Organizations

Result

Republican primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Joni Ernst (incumbent) 226,589 98.64%
Republican Write-In 3,132 1.36%
Total votes 229,721 100.00%


Democratic primary

On June 2, 2020, Theresa Greenfield won the Democratic primary with 47.71% of the vote, defeating three other major candidates, including Michael Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy.[11][12][13][14][15]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Cal Woods, journalist and U.S. Navy veteran[21][22][23] (endorsed Michael T. Franken) (remained on ballot)

Declined

Debates

Host

network

Date Link(s) Participants
Theresa

Greenfield

Michael

T. Franken

Kimberly

Graham

Eddie

Mauro

Iowa PBS May 18, 2020 [38] Present Present Present Present

Endorsements

Michael Franken
Federal officials
  • Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense (2013–2015) and U.S. Senator from Nebraska (1997–2009)[39] (Republican)
Kimberly Graham
Individuals
Organizations
Theresa Greenfield
Federal officials
State officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Michael
Franken
Kimberly
Graham
Theresa
Greenfield
Eddie
Mauro
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 5–6, 2020 849 (V) 12% 4% 43% 4% 36%
Emerson College October 13–16, 2019 317 (LV) ± 5.5% 6% 4% 11% 6% 74%

Results

County results
Results by county:
  Greenfield—70–80%
  Greenfield—60–70%
  Greenfield—50–60%
  Greenfield—40–50%
  Greenfield—<40%
  Franken—<40%
Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Theresa Greenfield 132,001 47.71%
Democratic Michael T. Franken 68,851 24.88%
Democratic Kimberly Graham 41,554 15.02%
Democratic Eddie Mauro 30,400 10.99%
Democratic Cal Woods (withdrawn) 3,372 1.21%
Democratic Write-In 514 0.19%
Total votes 276,692 100.00%

Other candidates

Rick Stewart, the Libertarian nominee

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Independents

Declared

  • Suzanne Herzog, economist and former ER nurse[57]

General election

Major media described the campaign as one of the most likely to decide control of the Senate after the 2020 election.[58][59] Polls conducted after the primary showed a close contest between Greenfield and Ernst, with neither candidate leading by more than 4 points.[60][61][62][63]

Through June 2020, Greenfield had raised $11.5 million, compared to $14.6 million for Ernst but by September, Greenfield had pulled ahead, raising $40.0 million compared to $21.6 million for Ernst.[64][65][66] The race was expected to be the most expensive in the state's history,[67] and the second most expensive Senate race in the United States, after the 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina, where Cal Cunningham challenged Thom Tillis.[68]

Debate

Host Date & time Link(s) Participants
Joni Ernst (R) Theresa Greenfield (D)
Iowa Press Debates September 28, 2020 [69] Present Present

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[70] Tossup October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[71] Tossup October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] Lean R November 2, 2020
Politico[73] Tossup November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[74] Tossup October 30, 2020
RCP[75] Tossup October 23, 2020
DDHQ[76] Tossup November 3, 2020
538[77] Tossup November 2, 2020
Economist[78] Tossup November 2, 2020

Endorsements

Theresa Greenfield (D)
Federal officials
State and local officials
Individuals
Unions
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polling

Theresa Greenfield vs. Joni Ernst
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Theresa Greenfield Joni Ernst Other/Undecided[lower-alpha 2] Margin
Real Clear Politics November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 45.8% 47.2% 7.0% Ernst +1.4
270 to Win November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.6%

47.0%

6.4% Ernst +0.4
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joni
Ernst (R)
Theresa
Greenfield (D)
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2020 871 (V) 47% 48% 5%
Change Research October 29 – November 1, 2020 1,084 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 48% 4%[lower-alpha 3]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 29 – November 1, 2020 853 (LV) ± 3.7% 47% 50% 2%[lower-alpha 4]
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020 951 (LV) ± 3.2% 45% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 5]
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020 604 (LV) ± 3.9% 48%[lower-alpha 6] 51% 2%[lower-alpha 7]
InsiderAdvantage (R) Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 1] October 30, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 45% 4%[lower-alpha 8]
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register October 26–29, 2020 814 (LV) ± 3.4% 46% 42% 11%[lower-alpha 9]
Quinnipiac University October 23–27, 2020 1,225 (LV) ± 2.8% 48% 46% 1%[lower-alpha 10]
RABA Research October 21–24, 2020 693 (LV) ± 4% 45% 51%
Emerson College October 19–21, 2020 435 (LV) ± 4.7% 51%[lower-alpha 6] 46% 3%[lower-alpha 11]
RMG Research Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 15–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43%[lower-alpha 12] 46% 10%[lower-alpha 13]
41%[lower-alpha 14] 48% 10%[lower-alpha 13]
45%[lower-alpha 15] 45% 10%[lower-alpha 13]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020 753 (LV) ± 3.9% 45% 44% 12%[lower-alpha 16]
Insider Advantage (R) Archived October 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 1] October 18–19, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 48% 8%[lower-alpha 17]
Monmouth University October 15–19, 2020 501 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 5%[lower-alpha 18]
501 (LV)[lower-alpha 19] 47% 49%
501 (LV)[lower-alpha 20] 45% 51%
Data for Progress (D) October 8–11, 2020 822 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 47% 10%[lower-alpha 21]
YouGov/CBS October 6–9, 2020 1,022 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% 10%[lower-alpha 22]
Opinion Insight (R)[upper-alpha 2] October 5–8, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 47%[lower-alpha 6] 45% 8%[lower-alpha 23]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 3–6, 2020 756 (LV) ± 3.9% 46% 49% 6%[lower-alpha 24]
Quinnipiac University October 1–5, 2020 1,205 (LV) ± 2.8% 45% 50% 5%[lower-alpha 10]
Data for Progress (D) September 23–28, 2020 743 (LV) ± 3.6% 42%[lower-alpha 12] 44% 14%[lower-alpha 25]
45%[lower-alpha 26] 46% 9%[lower-alpha 27]
Hart Research Associates (D)[upper-alpha 3] September 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 48%
RABA Research September 23–26, 2020 780 (LV) ± 4% 39% 51%
Monmouth University September 18–22, 2020 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 47% 47% 5%[lower-alpha 28]
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 19] 46% 49% 5%[lower-alpha 29]
402 (LV)[lower-alpha 20] 47% 48% 5%[lower-alpha 29]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 16–22, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.99% 40% 42% 19%[lower-alpha 30]
Selzer/Des Moines Register September 14–17, 2020 658 (LV) ± 3.8% 42% 45% 12%[lower-alpha 31]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[upper-alpha 4] August 30 – September 5, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 45% 5%[lower-alpha 32]
Opinion Insight (R)[upper-alpha 2] August 30 – September 2, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.46% 49%[lower-alpha 6] 43% 7%[lower-alpha 33]
Public Policy Polling August 13–14, 2020 729 (V) ± 4.1% 45% 48% 8%[lower-alpha 34]
Monmouth University July 30 – August 3, 2020 401 (RV) ± 4.9% 48% 45% 6%[lower-alpha 35]
401 (LV)[lower-alpha 19] 48% 47% 6%[lower-alpha 35]
401 (LV)[lower-alpha 20] 48% 47% 5%[lower-alpha 36]
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 2020 1,101 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 45% 11%[lower-alpha 37]
RMG Research July 27–30, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% 40% 24%[lower-alpha 38]
Spry Strategies (R)[upper-alpha 5] July 11–16, 2020 701 (LV) ± 3.7% 43% 45% 12%[lower-alpha 39]
GQR Research (D)[upper-alpha 6] June 23–28, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 49% 4%
Selzer/Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020 674 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 46% 11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos June 6–8, 2020 865 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 48% 6%
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[upper-alpha 7] June 3–4, 2020 963 (V) ± 3.4% 43% 45% 12%
Public Policy Polling April 30 – May 1, 2020 1,222 (V) ± 2.8% 43% 42% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 6] December 13–15, 2019 944 (V) ± 3.4% 47% 41% 12%
Emerson College October 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 47% 40% 14%
Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 8] April 24–29, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 56% 34%
Hypothetical polling
with Eddie Mauro
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joni
Ernst (R)
Eddie
Mauro (D)
Undecided
RABA Research/Eddie Mauro[upper-alpha 8] May 7–9, 2020 632 (LV) ± 3.9% 42% 42%
Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 8] April 24–29, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 58%[lower-alpha 12] 33%
49%[lower-alpha 40] 44%
with Joni Ernst and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joni
Ernst (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 29–30, 2019 780 (V) ± 3.5% 48% 44%
Public Policy Polling (D)[upper-alpha 9] June 30 – July 1, 2017 784 (V) ± 3.6% 48% 41% 12%
with Joni Ernst and Generic Opponent
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Joni
Ernst (R)
Generic
Opponent
Other Undecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. March 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 31% 3%[lower-alpha 41] 26%[lower-alpha 42]
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D)[upper-alpha 8] April 24–29, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 41%

Results

2020 United States Senate election in Iowa[99]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Joni Ernst (incumbent) 864,997 51.74% -0.36%
Democratic Theresa Greenfield 754,859 45.15% +1.39%
Libertarian Rick Stewart 36,961 2.21% +1.48%
Independent Suzanne Herzog 13,800 0.83% N/A
Write-in 1,211 0.07% -0.03%
Total votes 1,671,828 100.0%
Republican hold
By county
County[100] Joni Ernst
Republican
Theresa Greenfield
Democratic
Rick Stewart
Libertarian
Suzanne Herzog
Independent
Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Adair 2,809 67.78 1,207 29.13 89 2.15 36 0.87 3 0.07 1,602 38.66 4,144
Adams 1,497 69.34 594 27.51 46 2.13 19 0.88 3 0.14 903 41.82 2,159
Allamakee 4,478 61.04 2,602 35.47 175 2.39 80 1.09 1 0.01 1,876 25.57 7,336
Appanoose 4,189 65.60 1,956 30.63 168 2.63 71 1.11 2 0.03 2,233 34.97 6,386
Audubon 2,188 64.89 1,092 32.38 70 2.08 21 0.62 1 0.03 1,096 32.50 3,372
Benton 8,830 60.93 5,202 35.90 331 2.28 120 0.83 9 0.06 3,628 25.03 14,492
Black Hawk 29,222 44.27 34,963 52.96 1,301 1.97 490 0.74 37 0.06 -5,741 -8.70 66,013
Boone 8,315 54.74 6,316 41.58 385 2.53 167 1.10 7 0.05 1,999 13.16 15,190
Bremer 8,196 56.72 5,911 40.91 254 1.76 84 0.58 5 0.03 2,285 15.81 14,450
Buchanan 6,063 56.64 4,292 40.10 248 2.32 96 0.90 5 0.05 1,771 16.55 10,704
Buena Vista 4,724 59.09 3,022 37.80 166 2.08 75 0.94 7 0.09 1,702 21.29 7,994
Butler 5,291 66.06 2,474 30.89 173 2.16 69 0.86 2 0.02 2,817 35.17 8,009
Calhoun 3,513 67.40 1,531 29.37 129 2.48 32 0.61 7 0.13 1,982 38.03 5,212
Carroll 7,245 64.91 3,580 32.07 230 2.06 96 0.86 11 0.10 3,665 32.83 11,162
Cass 4,725 65.95 2,259 31.53 120 1.67 54 0.75 7 0.10 2,466 34.42 7,165
Cedar 5,935 56.30 4,300 40.79 226 2.14 74 0.70 6 0.06 1,635 15.51 10,541
Cerro Gordo 11,339 48.19 11,534 49.02 430 1.83 211 0.90 16 0.07 -195 -0.83 23,530
Cherokee 4,214 65.59 2,002 31.16 138 2.15 67 1.04 4 0.06 2,212 34.43 6,425
Chickasaw 4,024 61.16 2,324 35.32 159 2.42 71 1.08 2 0.03 1,700 25.84 6,580
Clarke 2,906 63.05 1,520 32.98 119 2.58 60 1.30 4 0.09 1,386 30.07 4,609
Clay 5,716 64.46 2,861 32.26 193 2.18 89 1.00 9 0.10 2,855 32.19 8,868
Clayton 5,845 61.37 3,434 36.06 157 1.65 82 0.86 6 0.06 2,411 25.31 9,524
Clinton 12,559 51.57 10,942 44.93 635 2.61 200 0.82 15 0.06 1,617 6.64 24,351
Crawford 4,424 63.12 2,336 33.33 160 2.28 80 1.14 9 0.13 2,088 29.79 7,009
Dallas 28,727 51.69 25,427 45.75 1,006 1.81 381 0.69 33 0.06 3,300 5.94 55,574
Davis 2,728 67.51 1,167 28.88 112 2.77 32 0.79 2 0.05 1,561 38.63 4,041
Decatur 2,439 65.21 1,165 31.15 90 2.41 43 1.15 3 0.08 1,274 34.06 3,740
Delaware 6,454 64.96 3,235 32.56 172 1.73 71 0.71 4 0.04 3,219 32.40 9,936
Des Moines 9,468 48.27 9,296 47.39 591 3.01 232 1.18 29 0.15 172 0.88 19,616
Dickinson 7,149 63.92 3,791 33.90 174 1.56 66 0.59 4 0.04 3,358 30.03 11,184
Dubuque 26,034 49.05 25,433 47.91 1,148 2.16 428 0.81 37 0.07 601 1.13 53,080
Emmet 2,965 61.81 1,637 34.13 147 3.06 47 0.98 1 0.02 1,328 27.68 4,797
Fayette 5,865 58.06 3,912 38.73 229 2.27 89 0.88 7 0.07 1,953 19.33 10,102
Floyd 4,181 52.45 3,498 43.88 187 2.35 98 1.23 8 0.10 683 8.57 7,972
Franklin 3,270 64.55 1,639 32.35 100 1.97 50 0.99 7 0.14 1,631 32.20 5,066
Fremont 2,563 67.31 1,099 28.86 89 2.34 56 1.47 1 0.03 1,464 38.45 3,808
Greene 3,063 61.36 1,784 35.74 104 2.08 39 0.78 2 0.04 1,279 25.62 4,992
Grundy 4,900 67.90 2,120 29.38 154 2.13 38 0.53 5 0.07 2,780 38.52 7,217
Guthrie 4,103 64.86 2,000 31.62 162 2.56 56 0.89 5 0.08 2,103 33.24 6,326
Hamilton 4,679 59.42 2,913 36.99 190 2.41 84 1.07 9 0.11 1,766 22.43 7,875
Hancock 4,004 65.86 1,881 30.94 130 2.14 60 0.99 5 0.08 2,123 34.92 6,080
Hardin 5,639 63.80 2,920 33.04 195 2.21 84 0.95 1 0.01 2,719 30.76 8,839
Harrison 5,059 63.10 2,574 32.10 253 3.16 118 1.47 14 0.17 2,485 30.99 8,018
Henry 5,875 60.12 3,457 35.38 310 3.17 116 1.19 14 0.14 2,418 24.74 9,772
Howard 2,716 55.36 2,014 41.05 118 2.41 58 1.18 0 0.00 702 14.31 4,906
Humboldt 3,671 69.74 1,443 27.41 108 2.05 40 0.76 2 0.04 2,228 42.33 5,264
Ida 2,757 72.23 964 25.26 66 1.73 28 0.73 2 0.05 1,793 46.97 3,817
Iowa 5,794 60.13 3,541 36.75 205 2.13 84 0.87 11 0.11 2,253 23.38 9,635
Jackson 6,175 56.58 4,249 38.94 366 3.35 118 1.08 5 0.05 1,926 17.65 10,913
Jasper 11,405 56.95 7,905 39.47 531 2.65 167 0.83 18 0.09 3,500 17.48 20,026
Jefferson 4,008 45.50 4,547 51.62 163 1.85 80 0.91 10 0.11 -539 -6.12 8,808
Johnson 23,773 28.77 57,063 69.06 1,382 1.67 373 0.45 42 0.05 -33,290 -40.29 82,633
Jones 6,320 57.97 4,237 38.86 273 2.50 68 0.62 4 0.04 2,083 19.11 10,902
Keokuk 3,565 68.39 1,489 28.56 101 1.94 53 1.02 5 0.10 2,076 39.82 5,213
Kossuth 5,957 66.14 2,799 31.08 193 2.14 57 0.63 0 0.00 3,158 35.07 9,006
Lee 8,489 51.29 7,445 44.98 485 2.93 122 0.74 11 0.07 1,044 6.31 16,552
Linn 53,248 42.10 69,125 54.66 3,188 2.52 815 0.64 90 0.07 -15,877 -12.55 126,466
Louisa 3,259 61.97 1,804 34.30 141 2.68 51 0.97 4 0.08 1,455 27.67 5,259
Lucas 3,105 68.32 1,302 28.65 99 2.18 36 0.79 3 0.07 1,803 39.67 4,545
Lyon 5,522 81.80 1,073 15.89 104 1.54 50 0.74 2 0.03 4,449 65.90 6,751
Madison 6,245 64.25 3,168 32.59 218 2.24 86 0.88 3 0.03 3,077 31.66 9,720
Mahaska 7,860 70.00 2,969 26.44 273 2.43 118 1.05 8 0.07 4,891 43.56 11,228
Marion 12,211 64.06 6,269 32.89 423 2.22 144 0.76 15 0.08 5,942 31.17 19,062
Marshall 9,057 50.68 8,187 45.81 442 2.47 165 0.92 21 0.12 870 4.87 17,872
Mills 5,347 65.54 2,544 31.18 177 2.17 82 1.01 8 0.10 2,803 34.36 8,158
Mitchell 3,347 57.69 2,282 39.33 124 2.14 49 0.84 0 0.00 1,065 18.36 5,802
Monona 3,054 65.47 1,455 31.19 108 2.32 39 0.84 9 0.19 1,599 34.28 4,665
Monroe 2,742 68.40 1,148 28.64 84 2.10 34 0.85 1 0.02 1,594 39.76 4,009
Montgomery 3,633 68.53 1,520 28.67 98 1.85 46 0.87 4 0.08 2,113 39.86 5,301
Muscatine 10,278 50.28 9,381 45.89 570 2.79 199 0.97 13 0.06 897 4.39 20,441
O'Brien 5,675 76.05 1,640 21.98 105 1.41 38 0.51 4 0.05 4,035 54.07 7,462
Osceola 2,525 77.38 657 20.13 49 1.50 31 0.95 1 0.03 1,868 57.25 3,263
Page 5,152 69.27 2,067 27.79 138 1.86 78 1.05 3 0.04 3,085 41.48 7,438
Palo Alto 3,113 63.12 1,677 34.00 106 2.15 36 0.73 0 0.00 1,436 29.12 4,932
Plymouth 10,145 72.26 3,587 25.55 219 1.56 77 0.55 11 0.08 6,558 46.71 14,039
Pocahontas 2,641 69.87 1,003 26.53 91 2.41 39 1.03 6 0.16 1,638 43.33 3,780
Polk 106,443 41.54 142,328 55.54 5,313 2.07 1,985 0.77 188 0.07 -35,885 -14.00 256,257
Pottawattamie 24,720 54.85 18,520 41.10 1,269 2.82 524 1.16 32 0.07 6,200 13.76 45,065
Poweshiek 5,361 53.38 4,381 43.62 202 2.01 91 0.91 8 0.08 980 9.76 10,043
Ringgold 1,870 69.36 732 27.15 75 2.78 16 0.59 3 0.11 1,138 42.21 2,696
Sac 3,849 70.17 1,440 26.25 129 2.35 60 1.09 7 0.13 2,409 43.92 5,485
Scott 42,941 46.88 45,751 49.94 2,139 2.33 709 0.77 66 0.07 -2,810 -3.07 91,606
Shelby 4,489 67.06 1,989 29.71 156 2.33 57 0.85 3 0.04 2,500 37.35 6,694
Sioux 15,785 83.54 2,828 14.97 192 1.02 81 0.43 9 0.05 12,957 68.57 18,895
Story 20,750 41.08 28,216 55.86 1,133 2.24 370 0.73 44 0.09 -7,466 -14.78 50,513
Tama 5,090 56.74 3,588 40.00 205 2.29 79 0.88 8 0.09 1,502 16.74 8,970
Taylor 2,337 72.80 762 23.74 83 2.59 28 0.87 0 0.00 1,575 49.07 3,210
Union 3,820 62.38 2,051 33.49 172 2.81 76 1.24 5 0.08 1,769 28.89 6,124
Van Buren 2,583 68.84 1,065 28.38 75 2.00 28 0.75 1 0.03 1,518 40.46 3,752
Wapello 8,464 55.15 6,344 41.33 394 2.57 132 0.86 14 0.09 2,120 13.81 15,348
Warren 17,276 56.27 12,478 40.64 692 2.25 234 0.76 23 0.07 4,798 15.63 30,703
Washington 6,773 58.12 4,519 38.78 262 2.25 95 0.82 5 0.04 2,254 19.34 11,654
Wayne 2,186 71.55 784 25.66 53 1.73 28 0.92 4 0.13 1,402 45.89 3,055
Webster 10,195 57.81 6,845 38.81 403 2.29 173 0.98 19 0.11 3,350 19.00 17,635
Winnebago 3,336 56.29 2,361 39.84 153 2.58 72 1.21 4 0.07 975 16.45 5,926
Winneshiek 6,039 50.49 5,581 46.66 218 1.82 118 0.99 4 0.03 458 3.83 11,960
Woodbury 24,175 54.27 18,674 41.92 994 2.23 629 1.41 72 0.16 5,501 12.35 44,544
Worth 2,425 55.40 1,803 41.19 98 2.24 46 1.05 5 0.11 622 14.21 4,377
Wright 3,889 62.85 2,063 33.34 158 2.55 76 1.23 2 0.03 1,826 29.51 6,188
Totals 864,997 51.74 754,859 45.15 36,961 2.21 13,800 0.83 1,211 0.07 110,138 6.59 1,671,828
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
District[99] Joni Ernst
Republican
Theresa Greenfield
Democratic
Rick Stewart
Libertarian
Suzanne Herzog
Independent
Write-in Margin Total votes Representative
(2020)
# % # % # % # % # % # %
1st district 206,559 49.48 197,792 47.72 9,454 2.26 3,231 0.77 267 0.06 8,767 2.10 417,483 Ashley Hinson
2nd district 199,741 49.17 193,588 47.65 9,426 2.32 3,197 0.79 295 0.07 6,153 1.51 406,247 Mariannette Miller-Meeks
3rd district 221,267 48.75 218,756 48.20 9,747 2.15 3,757 0.83 321 0.07 2,511 0.55 453,848 Cindy Axne
4th district 237,430 60.22 144,543 36.66 8,334 2.11 3,615 0.92 328 0.08 92,887 23.56 394,250 Randy Feenstra
Totals 864,997 51.74 754,859 45.15 36,961 2.21 13,800 0.83 1,211 0.07 110,138 6.59 1,671,828

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Center for American Greatness, a pro-Trump organization.
  2. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The American Action Forum, which is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
  3. Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  4. Poll sponsored by AARP.
  5. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the End Citizens United, which has only supported Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling.
  7. Poll sponsored by Emily's List, an organization that supports Democratic female candidates.
  8. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by the Eddie Mauro campaign
  9. Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Voter samples
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Stewart (L) with 2%; "Don't recall" and Undecided with 1%; Herzog (I) and would not vote with 0%
  4. Stewart (L) and Undecided with 1%; Herzog (I) and "Someone else" with 0%
  5. Herzog (I) with 3%; Stewart (L) with 2%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  6. 1 2 3 4 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. "Someone else" with 2%
  8. Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  9. "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" and "Undecided/do not remember" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  10. 1 2 "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  11. "Someone else" with 3%
  12. 1 2 3 Standard VI response
  13. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  14. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  15. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  16. Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  17. Stewart (L) with 5%; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  18. Herzog (I), "No one" and Stewart (L) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  19. 1 2 3 With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  20. 1 2 3 With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  21. Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  22. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  23. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
  24. Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  25. Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  26. If the only candidates were Ernst and Greenfield
  27. Undecided with 9%
  28. Stewart (L) with 1%; Herzog (I), "Other" and "No one" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  29. 1 2 Stewart (L) with 1; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  30. Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 14%
  31. "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 7%
  32. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  33. Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  34. Undecided with 8%
  35. 1 2 Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  36. Stewart (L) and Undecided with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%
  37. "No one" with 11%
  38. Undecided with 24%
  39. "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 7%
  40. Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Ernst and Mauro
  41. Would not vote with 3%
  42. "Would consider voting for someone else" with 20%; "unsure" with 6%

References

  1. "United States Senate election in Iowa, 2020 (June 2 Democratic primary)". ballotpedia.org. Retrieved January 13, 2020.
  2. Rosenberg, Benjamin (October 16, 2020). "Joni Ernst didn't know the price of soybeans. Here's why that could cost her". Vox. Retrieved May 25, 2023.
  3. "United States Senate election in Iowa, 2020 (General Election)".
  4. Cohen, Zach C. (December 5, 2018). "How 2014's Outsiders Became 2020's Insiders". National Journal. Archived from the original on July 9, 2019. Retrieved December 5, 2018.
  5. Axelrod, Tal (December 8, 2018). "Iowa's Ernst will run for reelection in 2020". TheHill. Retrieved December 30, 2018.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 Gunzburger, Ron. "Politics1 – Online Guide to Iowa Politics". politics1.com. Retrieved December 31, 2018.
  7. Tope, Mallory (October 31, 2019). "Candidates gear up campaigns for Iowa U.S. Senate race". Iowa State Daily. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  8. "Primary Election". sos.iowa.gov.
  9. 1 2 "2020 Candidates". maggieslist.org.
  10. 1 2 "Primary Election – 2020 CANVASS SUMMARY" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State. Retrieved August 27, 2020.
  11. "State of Iowa 2020 Primary Election Results". The Des Moines Register. June 3, 2020. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
  12. Panetta, Grace. "Theresa Greenfield wins the Democratic primary for US Senate in Iowa". Business Insider. Retrieved August 24, 2020.
  13. Manchester, Julia (June 2, 2020). "Greenfield wins Senate Democratic primary in Iowa". The Hill. Retrieved September 14, 2020.
  14. Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Theresa Greenfield to take on Joni Ernst in high-profile battle for U.S. Senate seat". Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
  15. "Democrats Fight for Chance to Take on GOP Sen. Ernst in Iowa". The New York Times. The Associated Press. June 1, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 7, 2020.
  16. Gerber, Drew [@dagerber] (June 3, 2019). "Theresa Greenfield launches her campaign for #IASEN. She's been highly sought after by the party" (Tweet). Retrieved June 3, 2019 via Twitter.
  17. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 26, 2019). "Retired Navy Admiral Michael Franken to run for U.S. Senate, challenge Joni Ernst". Des Moines Register. Retrieved August 26, 2019.
  18. Becker, Amanda; Jackson, Katharine (January 19, 2019). "Women protest in hundreds of U.S. cities for third straight year". Reuters. Retrieved May 11, 2019.
  19. Wade, Jazmen (July 20, 2019). "Iowa US Senate Candidate Kimberly Graham for the People". KHQA.
  20. Iowa Starting Line [@IAStartingLine] (May 19, 2019). "Guess we'll wait for the official thing tomorrow AM, but FYI #IASenpic.twitter.com/E0EJWVXsRF" (Tweet). Retrieved May 19, 2019 via Twitter.
  21. Rivers, Amie (March 2, 2020). "U.S. Senate candidate Cal Woods looking to take on 'climate crisis' if elected". The Courier.
  22. "Meet Cal". Cal for Iowa. Archived from the original on April 10, 2020. Retrieved April 10, 2020.
  23. Lynch, James Q. "Cal Woods drops out of Iowa Democratic U.S. Senate race". The Gazette. Retrieved May 5, 2020.
  24. Price, Dave [@idaveprice] (April 30, 2019). "Confirmed: Iowa Democrat @RepCindyAxne running for re-election in the 3rd District. Not running for senate against @SenJoniErnst in 2020. Axne is in her first term after defeating two term incumbent @RepDavidYoung in 2018. @WHOhd #iowavotes2020" (Tweet). Retrieved April 30, 2019 via Twitter.
  25. "2020 Senate At-A-Glance" (PDF). Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 9, 2019.
  26. "Democrats look to unseat Joni Ernst in 2020 Senate race". The Washington Times. Retrieved December 28, 2018.
  27. Bowman, Bridget (August 21, 2019). "House freshmen try to keep it local as presidential race steals the spotlight". Roll Call. Retrieved August 22, 2019.
  28. 1 2 3 Meyer, Elizabeth (September 24, 2019). "Finkenauer Endorses Greenfield In Effort To Unseat Ernst". Iowa Starting Line.
  29. "Endorsement Alert!". us7.campaign-archive.com. Retrieved August 30, 2019.
  30. 1 2 3 "Who will run against Joni Ernst in 2020?". Iowa Starting Line. November 12, 2018. Retrieved November 12, 2018.
  31. Arkin, James (February 27, 2019). "Senate recruiting notebook: Duran clarifies field facing Gardner". Politico. Retrieved February 27, 2019. And former state Sen. Rita Hart, the 2018 Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, is a potential candidate, according to multiple Iowa Democrats, but she has not discussed a campaign publicly.
  32. Weig, Nick (February 26, 2019). "Sen. Liz Mathis meets with Democrats in D.C. to talk about 2020 Senate race". CBS2. Retrieved February 27, 2019.
  33. Rynard, Pat (February 25, 2019). "Who's Gearing Up To Challenge Joni Ernst?". Iowa Starting Line. Retrieved February 25, 2019.
  34. Judd, Donald (August 5, 2019). "Iowa native JD Scholten announces second bid to unseat GOP Rep. Steve King". CNN. Retrieved August 5, 2019.
  35. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (February 22, 2019). "Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack will not run for the U.S. Senate against Sen. Joni Ernst in 2020". Des Moines Register. Retrieved February 22, 2019.
  36. "Stacey Walker won't seek U.S. Senate nomination". The Gazette. August 12, 2019. Retrieved August 12, 2019.
  37. Lynch, James Q. "Linn County Supervisor Stacey Walker endorses Kimberly Graham for Senate". The Gazette. Retrieved October 30, 2019.
  38. "Iowa Press Debates: U.S. Senate Democratic Primary". www.youtube.com.
  39. "The Public Pulse: Davis essay rang true; Hagel supports Franken; Trump is the real threat". Omaha.com. May 28, 2020.
  40. 1 2 3 4 "Endorsements". Kimberly Graham for U.S. Senate. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
  41. "Kimberly Graham". Brand New Congress. October 23, 2019. Archived from the original on October 29, 2019. Retrieved October 29, 2019.
  42. Murray, Isabella (December 5, 2019). "Iowa Climate Strikes Will Draw National, State Political Leaders". Iowa Starting Line.
  43. 1 2 "IA-Sen: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D. OH) Helps Theresa Greenfield (D) Get Ready To Defeat Joni Ernst (R)". Daily KOS. December 16, 2019.
  44. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 "Endorsements". greenfieldforiowa.com. Archived from the original on May 7, 2020. Retrieved May 9, 2020.
  45. 1 2 Opsahl, Robin (June 25, 2019). "Theresa Greenfield nets endorsement from Rep. Dave Loebsack in Democratic Senate primary". Des Moines Register.
  46. Obama, Barack (August 3, 2020). "First Wave of 2020 Endorsements". medium.com. Retrieved September 7, 2020.
  47. 1 2 Brown, Kris (January 8, 2020). "Brady Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate: Iowa Needs A Common-sense Champion". Brady.
  48. 1 2 "DSCC Endorses Theresa Greenfield in Iowa Senate Campaign". DSCC: Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. June 6, 2019.
  49. 1 2 "EMILY's List Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate in Iowa". Emily's List. June 6, 2019.
  50. 1 2 Muller, Tiffany (July 10, 2019). "End Citizens United Endorses Theresa Greenfield; Names Ernst to "Big Money 20"". End Citizens United.
  51. 1 2 "2020 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
  52. 1 2 "In Key Senate Races, Giffords Backs Challengers in Iowa and North Carolina Taking on NRA-Backed Incumbents". Giffords. April 10, 2020.
  53. 1 2 Burke, Holly (October 2, 2019). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved November 26, 2019.
  54. 1 2 "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate". NARAL Pro-Choice America. November 7, 2019.
  55. 1 2 "2020 Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on September 18, 2020. Retrieved May 9, 2020.
  56. "The Green Papers: Iowa 2020 General Election". The Green Papers. May 15, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
  57. "Suzanne Herzog For US Senate – Iowa's Independent Voice". Archived from the original on December 16, 2019. Retrieved December 16, 2019.
  58. Phillips, Amber (August 7, 2020). "The most competitive Senate races of 2020". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 19, 2020.
  59. Nilsen, Ella (September 14, 2020). "The ways Democrats could retake the Senate majority, explained". Vox. Retrieved September 19, 2020.
  60. "Iowa Senate – Ernst vs. Greenfield". RealClear Politics. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
  61. "Iowa U.S. Senate Polls". FiveThirtyEight. June 28, 2018. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
  62. Pfannenstiel, Brianne (June 13, 2020). "Iowa Poll: Theresa Greenfield leads Joni Ernst in tight race for U.S. Senate". The Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
  63. "IOWA: CLOSE CONTESTS FOR PREZ & SENATE" (Press release). West Long Branch, NJ: Monmouth University. August 5, 2020. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
  64. Panetta, Grace (August 7, 2020). "What you need to know about the US Senate election in Iowa between Joni Ernst and Theresa Greenfield". Business Insider. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
  65. Coltrain, Nick. "Record-smashing Iowa Senate race fuels deluge of final-stretch campaign spending". Des Moines Register.
  66. "Iowa Senate 2020 Race". OpenSecrets.
  67. Gabriel, Trip (September 2, 2020). "Joni Ernst, in a Tight Senate Race, Repeats a Debunked Coronavirus Theory". The New York Times. Retrieved September 7, 2020.
  68. Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "In a slew of competitive Senate races, Iowa's draws second-highest advertising spending in the country". Des Moines Register. Retrieved September 22, 2020.
  69. "Iowa Press Debates: U.S. Senate". Iowa Press Debates. September 28, 2020. Archived from the original on October 20, 2020. Retrieved October 15, 2020.
  70. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  71. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  72. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
  73. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. Retrieved October 21, 2020.
  74. "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  75. "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
  76. "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved October 21, 2020.
  77. Silver, Nate (August 12, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 21, 2020.
  78. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  79. "Endorsed Candidates". www.cwfpac.com. Campaign for Working Families. Retrieved August 26, 2020.
  80. PAC, Huck. "Candidates – Huck PAC". www.huckpac.com.
  81. Kirsten Gillibrand (February 5, 2020). "Off the Sidelines Endorsed Candidates".
  82. "First Wave of 2020 Endorsements". August 3, 2020.
  83. "Endorsements | Warren Democrats". elizabethwarren.com. Archived from the original on January 7, 2021. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  84. "U.S. Senate – Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
  85. "Iowa – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  86. "Cedar Rapids Gazette Editorial Board Endorses Greenfield: "It's time for a new voice in the Senate, that voice is Theresa Greenfield."". October 3, 2020. Archived from the original on November 13, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2020.
  87. "Des Moines Register Editorial Board Endorsement: "Greenfield should be given an opportunity to refocus the junior senator's office on working Iowans" – Theresa Greenfield". Theresa Greenfield. October 18, 2020. Archived from the original on November 1, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2020.
  88. "Telegraph Herald Editorial Board: "Greenfield merits opportunity to serve Iowa in U.S. Senate"". October 25, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2020.
  89. "Our pick: Send Theresa Greenfield and Rita Hart to Congress".
  90. "Quad-City Times Editorial Board: "We endorse Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate."". October 9, 2020. Archived from the original on October 21, 2020. Retrieved October 31, 2020.
  91. "2020 Endorsements".
  92. "Theresa Greenfield". Climate Hawks Vote.
  93. "Theresa Greenfield for Senate (D-IA) – Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
  94. "Democracy for America endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate in Iowa". Democracy for America. February 12, 2020.
  95. "Everytown For Gun Safety Action Fund Endorses Theresa Greenfield for U.S. Senate in Iowa". Everytown. June 9, 2020.
  96. "JStreetPAC Candidates". JStreetPAC. Archived from the original on May 2, 2018. Retrieved November 1, 2020.
  97. "Candidates We Endorse and Support". NCPSSM.
  98. "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 11 House, Senate Candidates". nrdcactionfund.org. June 15, 2020.
  99. 1 2 "General Election – 2020 Canvass Summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State.
  100. "Iowa U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 3, 2021.

Further reading

Official campaign websites
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.