In the lead-up to the 2015 New South Wales state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.
Voting intention
Graphical summary
Primary vote graph
Two-party preferred graph
Voting intention polling
| Date | Firm | Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | NAT | ALP | GRN | OTH | L/NP | ALP | ||
| 23–26 March 2015 | Newspoll[1] | 35% | 9% | 34% | 11% | 11% | 55% | 45%[2] |
| 26 March 2015 | Roy Morgan[3] | 49.0%* | 29.0% | 12.5% | 9.5% | 57.5% | 42.5% | |
| 26 March 2015 | ReachTEL[4] | 36.4% | 9.10% | 33.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 54.0% | 46.0% |
| 24–25 March 2015 | Galaxy[5] | 45%* | 34% | 11% | 10% | 55% | 45% | |
| 20–23 March 2015 | Roy Morgan[6] | 45.5%* | 32.5% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 56.0% | 44.0% | |
| 19–21 March 2015 | Ipsos[7] | 47%* | 32% | 13% | 9% | 54% | 46% | |
| 18–19 March 2015 | Galaxy[8] | 44%* | 36% | 10% | 10% | 54% | 46% | |
| 13–15 March 2015 | Roy Morgan[9] | 46.5%* | 33.5% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 55.5% | 44.5% | |
| 13–16 March 2015 | Lonergan Research[10] | not specified | 55% | 45% | ||||
| 5 March 2015 | ReachTEL[11] | 36% | 8% | 34.8% | 10.2% | 11% | 53% | 47% |
| 23–26 Feb 2015 | Newspoll[12] | 43%* | 36% | 11% | 10% | 54% | 46% | |
| 18–19 Feb 2015 | Galaxy[13] | 43%* | 36% | 10% | 11% | 53% | 47% | |
| 13–16 Feb 2015 | Roy Morgan[14] | 45%* | 34% | 9.5% | 11.5% | 55.5% | 44.5% | |
| 5–7 Feb 2015 | Ipsos[15] | 46%* | 34% | 12% | 9% | 53% | 47% | |
| 16–18 Jan 2015 | Roy Morgan[16] | 44.5%* | 35% | 11% | 9.5% | 54% | 46% | |
| 5 January 2015 Luke Foley becomes Labor leader and leader of the opposition | ||||||||
| Nov–Dec 2014 | Newspoll | 38% | 6% | 33% | 11% | 12% | 56% | 44% |
| 21–24 Nov 2014 | Roy Morgan[17] | 44%* | 32.5% | 12.5% | 11% | 55% | 45% | |
| 20–22 Nov 2014 | Ipsos[18] | 44%* | 36% | 11% | 9% | 54% | 46% | |
| 24–27 Oct 2014 | Roy Morgan[19] | 46%* | 34% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 56% | 44% | |
| October 2014 | Newspoll | 40% | 6% | 34% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 56% | 44% |
| Sep–Oct 2014 | Newspoll | 38% | 4% | 33% | 13% | 12% | 55% | 45% |
| 26–29 Sep 2014 | Roy Morgan[20] | 46%* | 32.5% | 12% | 9.5% | 53% | 47% | |
| Jul–Aug 2014 | Newspoll | 34% | 6% | 33% | 13% | 14% | 54% | 46% |
| May–Jun 2014 | Newspoll | 38% | 5% | 31% | 13% | 13% | 57% | 43% |
| 17 April 2014 Mike Baird becomes Liberal leader and New South Wales Premier | ||||||||
| 22–26 Feb 2014 | Nielsen[18][21] | 40%* | 35% | 12% | 13% | 49% | 51% | |
| Jan–Feb 2014 | Newspoll | 41% | 5% | 31% | 10% | 13% | 58% | 42% |
| Sep–Oct 2013 | Newspoll | 39% | 6% | 32% | 10% | 13% | 57% | 43% |
| May–Jun 2013 | Newspoll | 42% | 7% | 28% | 12% | 13% | 61% | 39% |
| Mar–Apr 2013 | Newspoll | 43% | 5% | 28% | 10% | 14% | 61% | 39% |
| 22–24 Mar 2013 | Nielsen[18][21] | 52%* | 23% | 10% | 14% | 63% | 37% | |
| Jan–Feb 2013 | Newspoll | 41% | 5% | 27% | 11% | 16% | 60% | 40% |
| Nov–Dec 2012 | Newspoll | 39% | 6% | 29% | 11% | 15% | 59% | 41% |
| Sep–Oct 2012 | Newspoll | 39% | 6% | 28% | 11% | 16% | 59% | 41% |
| 10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012 | Roy Morgan[22] | 53%* | 27% | 10% | 10% | 59.5% | 40.5% | |
| Jul–Aug 2012 | Newspoll | 42% | 5% | 27% | 12% | 14% | 61% | 39% |
| 5/6 & 12/13 June 2012 | Roy Morgan[23] | 50%* | 23.5% | 10% | 11.5% | 61% | 39% | |
| Mar–Apr 2012 | Newspoll | 41% | 6% | 24% | 12% | 17% | 63% | 37% |
| 20–28 Mar 2012 | Roy Morgan[24] | 49%* | 24.5% | 13% | 13.5% | 58.5% | 41.5% | |
| Jan–Feb 2012 | Newspoll | 44% | 5% | 25% | 13% | 13% | 64% | 36% |
| Nov–Dec 2011 | Newspoll | 43% | 6% | 24% | 13% | 14% | 64% | 36% |
| Sep–Oct 2011 | Newspoll | 45% | 6% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 66% | 34% |
| 5–10 Apr 2011 | Roy Morgan[24] | 56.5%* | 19% | 13% | 11.5% | 70.5% | 29.5% | |
| 31 March 2011 John Robertson becomes Labor leader and leader of the opposition | ||||||||
| 26 March 2011 election | 38.6% | 12.6% | 25.6% | 10.3% | 13.0% | 64.2% | 35.8% | |
| 21–24 Mar 2011 | Newspoll | 41% | 9% | 23% | 12% | 15% | 64.1% | 35.9% |
| * Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote. ** Indicates a combined Christian Democratic Party/Other vote. | ||||||||
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[25] | ||||||||
Leadership polling
Graphical summary
Better Premier and leadership polling
| Date | Firm | Better Premier | Baird | Foley | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | Foley | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | ||||
| 23–26 March 2015 | Newspoll[1] | 54% | 27% | 57% | 29% | 38% | 37% | ||
| 26 March 2015 | Roy Morgan[3] | 67.5% | 32.5% | not asked | |||||
| 26 March 2015 | ReachTEL[4] | not asked | 48.8% | 23.3% | 23.2% | 35.2% | |||
| 24–25 March 2015 | Galaxy[5] | 53% | 25% | not asked | |||||
| 20–23 March 2015 | Roy Morgan[6] | 65% | 35% | not asked | |||||
| 19–21 March 2015 | Ipsos[7] | 56% | 27% | 60% | 22% | not specified | |||
| 18–19 March 2015 | Galaxy[8] | 49% | 24% | not asked | |||||
| 13–15 March 2015 | Roy Morgan[9] | 64% | 36% | not asked | |||||
| 13–16 March 2015 | Lonergan Research[10] | 52% | 23% | not asked | |||||
| 23–26 Feb 2015 | Newspoll | 55% | 25% | 59% | 26% | 36% | 31% | ||
| 18–19 Feb 2015 | Galaxy[13] | 46% | 22% | not asked | |||||
| 13–16 Feb 2015 | Roy Morgan[14] | 66.5% | 33.5% | not asked | |||||
| 5–7 Feb 2015 | Ipsos[15] | 54% | 24% | 60% | 18% | 30% | 21% | ||
| 16–18 Jan 2015 | Roy Morgan[16] | 69% | 31% | not asked | |||||
| 5 January 2015 Foley replaces Robertson | Baird | Robertson | Baird | Robertson | |||||
| Nov–Dec 2014 | Newspoll | 56% | 17% | 60% | 20% | 31% | 38% | ||
| 21–24 Nov 2014 | Roy Morgan[17] | 70% | 30% | not asked | |||||
| 20–22 Nov 2014 | Ipsos[18] | 57% | 22% | 60% | 18% | 35% | 37% | ||
| 24–27 Oct 2014 | Roy Morgan[19] | 68% | 32% | not asked | |||||
| October 2014 | Newspoll | 68% | 32% | not asked | |||||
| Sep–Oct 2014 | Newspoll | 52% | 17% | 56% | 20% | 35% | 32% | ||
| 26–29 Sep 2014 | Roy Morgan[20] | 70.5% | 29.5% | not asked | |||||
| Jul–Aug 2014 | Newspoll | 45% | 21% | 49% | 23% | 34% | 32% | ||
| May–Jun 2014 | Newspoll | 47% | 20% | 49% | 19% | 35% | 32% | ||
| 17 April 2014 Baird replaces O'Farrell | O'Farrell | Robertson | O'Farrell | Robertson | |||||
| 22–26 Feb 2014 | Nielsen[18][21] | 50% | 30% | 46% | 40% | 34% | 36% | ||
| Jan–Feb 2014 | Newspoll | 49% | 19% | 42% | 39% | 30% | 34% | ||
| Sep–Oct 2013 | Newspoll | 50% | 19% | 45% | 32% | 31% | 31% | ||
| May–Jun 2013 | Newspoll | 51% | 18% | 41% | 37% | 28% | 35% | ||
| Mar–Apr 2013 | Newspoll | 52% | 20% | 44% | 38% | 28% | 34% | ||
| 22–24 Mar 2013 | Nielsen[18][21] | 62% | 25% | not asked | |||||
| Jan–Feb 2013 | Newspoll | 48% | 19% | 43% | 38% | 28% | 35% | ||
| Nov–Dec 2012 | Newspoll | 44% | 21% | 38% | 40% | 27% | 33% | ||
| Sep–Oct 2012 | Newspoll | 46% | 22% | 36% | 42% | 25% | 39% | ||
| 10/11 Jul & 7/8, 14/15 Aug 2012 | Roy Morgan[22] | 50.5% | 21% | 35.5% | 40% | 22.5% | 36.5% | ||
| Jul–Aug 2012 | Newspoll | 47% | 18% | 37% | 37% | 26% | 34% | ||
| 5/6 & 12/13 June 2012 | Roy Morgan[23] | 57.5% | 15.5% | 43% | 35.5% | 26.5% | 35% | ||
| Mar–Apr 2012 | Newspoll | 56% | 14% | 48% | 30% | 28% | 37% | ||
| 20–28 Mar 2012 | Roy Morgan[24] | 57% | 19.5% | 48% | 28.5% | 25.5% | 37.5% | ||
| Jan–Feb 2012 | Newspoll | 52% | 15% | 46% | 29% | 26% | 34% | ||
| Nov–Dec 2011 | Newspoll | 54% | 15% | 49% | 28% | 28% | 35% | ||
| Sep–Oct 2011 | Newspoll | 57% | 13% | 53% | 24% | 27% | 32% | ||
| 5–10 Apr 2011 | Roy Morgan[24] | 69.5% | 7% | 54.5% | 10% | 18.5% | 22.5% | ||
| 31 March 2011 Robertson replaces Keneally | O'Farrell | Keneally | O'Farrell | Keneally | |||||
| 26 March 2011 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | |||
| 21–24 Mar 2011 | Newspoll | 48% | 32% | 48% | 39% | 32% | 60% | ||
| * Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither". | |||||||||
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[25] | |||||||||
References
- 1 2 "Newspoll" (PDF). The Australian. 27 March 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2 April 2015. Retrieved 26 March 2015.
- ↑ Preference allocation based on previous election. Respondent-allocated vote was 52% L/NP, 48% ALP
- 1 2 "Baird set for comfortable victory in tomorrow's NSW Election as electors reject Foley's 'scare campaign'". Roy Morgan Research. 27 March 2015. Retrieved 27 March 2015.
- 1 2 "7 News – New South Wales poll – 26 March 2015". ReachTEL. 27 March 2015. Retrieved 27 March 2015.
- 1 2 "State election: Voters punish Luke Foley's folly". The Daily Telegraph. 27 March 2015. Retrieved 27 March 2015.
- 1 2 "Mike Baird set to lead L-NP to clear victory in NSW Election". Roy Morgan Research. 24 March 2015. Retrieved 24 March 2015.
- 1 2 "Latest poll: Poll shows Mike Baird set for victory as he rallies the troops at campaign launch". Fairfax Media. 22 March 2015. Retrieved 22 March 2015.
- 1 2 "Latest poll: Premier Mike Baird building a winning lead". Galaxy Research. 16 March 2015. Retrieved 16 March 2015.
- 1 2 "Mike Baird set to lead L-NP to clear victory in NSW Election". Roy Morgan Research. 17 March 2015. Retrieved 21 March 2015.
- 1 2 "New South Wales election: poll shows Mike Baird holds commanding lead". Lonergan Research. 18 March 2015. Retrieved 20 March 2015.
- ↑ "Latest poll: 7 News – New South Wales poll – 5 March 2015". ReachTEL. 5 March 2015. Archived from the original on 20 March 2015. Retrieved 21 March 2015.
- ↑ "Mike Baird set for win despite PM woes: Newspoll". The Australian. 28 February 2015. Retrieved 1 March 2015.
- 1 2 Clennell, Andrew (23 February 2015). "Liberals in poll pain with another Baird result: Lead over Labor is narrowing". The Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 23 February 2015.
- 1 2 "Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier in NSW next month". Roy Morgan Research. 20 February 2015. Retrieved 24 February 2015.
- 1 2 "Strong approval for NSW premier Mike Baird continues – Fairfax Ipsos Poll". Ipsos. 9 February 2015. Archived from the original on 13 February 2015. Retrieved 13 February 2015.
- 1 2 "Queensland State Election too close to call with only a week to go but Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier in NSW". Roy Morgan Research. 22 January 2015. Retrieved 16 February 2015.
- 1 2 "Coalition well ahead in NSW but Queensland too close to call. Palmer United Party loses support in every State". Roy Morgan Research. 26 November 2014. Retrieved 16 February 2015.
- 1 2 3 4 5 6 Nicholls, Sean (24 November 2014). "NSW state election: Mike Baird's electricity sale will see prices rise, voters fear". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 16 February 2015.
- 1 2 "Coalition well ahead in NSW but Queensland too close to call". Roy Morgan Research. 28 October 2014. Retrieved 16 February 2015.
- 1 2 "ALP in 'Box Seat' for Victorian State Election. Coalition still ahead in NSW & Queensland". Roy Morgan Research. 1 October 2014. Retrieved 16 February 2015.
- 1 2 3 4 Nicholls, Sean (1 March 2014). "Corruption fallout hits O'Farrell". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 16 February 2015.
- 1 2 "L-NP Lead in Four Major States". Roy Morgan Research. 17 August 2012. Retrieved 16 February 2015.
- 1 2 "MORGAN POLL STATE VOTING INTENTION L-NP LEADS IN AUSTRALIA'S BIGGEST STATES: NSW: L-NP (61%) CF. ALP (39%); VICTORIA: L-NP (52%) CF. ALP (48%) & QUEENSLAND: LNP (62%) CF. ALP (38%)". Roy Morgan Research. 16 June 2012. Retrieved 16 February 2015.
- 1 2 3 4 "NSW Coalition Has Big Lead Although Reduced: L-NP (58.5%) CF. ALP (41.5%)". Roy Morgan Research. 30 March 2012. Retrieved 16 February 2015.
- 1 2 "Opinion Polls". Archived from the original on 27 February 2015. Retrieved 5 May 2013.
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.