In the lead-up to the 2014 Victorian state election, a number of polling companies conducted regular opinion polls for various news organisations. These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, and contained an estimation of the two-party-preferred vote. They also asked questions about the electorates' views on major party leaders.

Graphical summary

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
LIB NAT ALP GRN OTH L/NP ALP
29 Nov 2014 election 36.46% 5.53% 38.1% 11.48% 8.42% 48.01% 51.99%
25–28 Nov 2014 Ipsos[1] 42%* 35% 15% 8% 48% 52%
24–27 Nov 2014 Newspoll 36% 4% 39% 12% 9% 48% 52%
27 Nov 2014 ReachTEL[2] 34.5% 5.2% 38.3% 13.5% 8.5% 48% 52%
26–27 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[3] 44%* 36% 13.5% 6.5% 50% 50%
25–26 Nov 2014 Galaxy[4] 40%* 39% 13% 8% 48% 52%
7–24 Nov 2014 Essential[5] 40%* 39% 13% 8% 47% 53%
21–24 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[6] 39.5%* 33.5% 17.5% 9.5% 48% 52%
19–20 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[7] 35%* 35.5% 19.5% 10% 45% 55%
18–19 Nov 2014 Galaxy[8] 35% 5% 39% 13% 8% 48% 52%
7–10 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[9] 38%* 36% 18.5% 7.5% 46.5% 53.5%
6–9 Nov 2014 Ipsos[10] 39%* 39% 16% 8% 44% 56%
27–30 Oct 2014 Newspoll 35% 4% 41% 13% 7% 46% 54%
24–27 Oct 2014 Roy Morgan[11] 37.5%* 34% 18.5% 10% 47.5% 52.5%
23–26 Oct 2014 Ipsos[12] 39%* 37% 17% 9% 44% 56%
23 Oct 2014 ReachTEL[13] 34.7% 3.9% 37.5% 13.3% 10.5% 47% 53%
22–24 Oct 2014 Galaxy[14] 35% 5% 38% 13% 9% 48% 52%
26–29 Sep 2014 Roy Morgan[15] 37.5%* 34% 18% 10.5% 46% 54%
14–15 Aug 2014 Galaxy[14] 35% 5% 38% 12% 10% 48% 52%
Jul–Aug 2014 Newspoll 32% 3% 37% 16% 12% 45% 55%
May–Jun 2014 Newspoll 33% 4% 38% 16% 9% 46% 54%
26–27 Feb 2014 Galaxy[14] 37% 5% 39% 12% 7% 49% 51%
Jan–Feb 2014 Newspoll 35% 3% 39% 13% 10% 47% 53%
21 Nov 2013 ReachTEL[16] 39.1% 4.3% 35.8% 11% 9.9% —
Sep–Oct 2013 Newspoll 36% 3% 38% 14% 9% 47% 53%
Jul–Aug 2013 Newspoll 37% 4% 38% 13% 8% 49% 51%
May–Jun 2013 Newspoll 40% 3% 35% 12% 10% 51% 49%
30 May 2013 ReachTEL[17] 37.9% 5.7% 32.5% 13.6% 10.4% —
12 Apr 2013 ReachTEL[18] 45.2% 4.3% 35.3% 11.5% 3.8% —
Mar–Apr 2013 Newspoll 38% 5% 37% 12% 8% 50% 50%
7 Mar 2013 ReachTEL[19] 40.1% 4.8% 36.9% 12.3% 6% —
6 March 2013 Denis Napthine becomes Liberal leader and Victorian Premier
22 Feb 2013 ReachTEL[20] 37.6% 6.6% 34.9% 12.6% 8.2% —
Jan–Feb 2013 Newspoll 35% 4% 38% 13% 10% 47% 53%
25 Jan 2013 ReachTEL[21] 34.4% 3.5% 36.8% 12.4% 13.1% —
Nov–Dec 2012 Newspoll 33% 3% 38% 16% 10% 45% 55%
Sep–Oct 2012 Newspoll 35% 2% 41% 13% 9% 45% 55%
Jul–Aug 2012 Newspoll 37% 4% 35% 13% 11% 50% 50%
5–13 June 2012 Roy Morgan[22] 44.5%* 33.5% 15.5% 6.5% 52% 48%
Mar–Apr 2012 Newspoll 37% 5% 32% 17% 9% 51% 49%
20–28 Mar 2012 Roy Morgan[22] 45.5%* 35.5% 12.5% 6.5% 53% 47%
Jan–Feb 2012 Newspoll 42% 3% 33% 14% 8% 53% 47%
Nov–Dec 2011 Newspoll 40% 3% 34% 15% 8% 51% 49%
Sep–Oct 2011 Newspoll 43% 4% 30% 15% 8% 55% 45%
Jul–Aug 2011 Newspoll 44% 4% 28% 15% 9% 57% 43%
5–10 Apr 2011 Roy Morgan[22] 48%* 31% 11.5% 9.5% 57% 43%
3 December 2010 Daniel Andrews becomes Labor leader and leader of the opposition
30 Nov – 1 Dec 2010 Roy Morgan[22] 46%* 32% 14% 8% 57% 43%
27 Nov 2010 election 38.0% 6.7% 36.3% 11.2% 7.8% 51.6% 48.4%
23–25 Nov 2010 Newspoll 40% 5% 33% 15% 7% 51.1% 48.9%
22–25 Nov 2010 Roy Morgan[22] 44.5%* 35.5% 13% 7% 51% 49%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here Archived 23 March 2018 at the Wayback Machine

Better Premier and satisfaction polling

Graphical summary of polling for Better Premier
Graphical summary of approval ratings for Ted Baillieu and Denis Napthine as Premiers
Graphical summary of approval ratings for Daniel Andrews as Leader of the Opposition
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
Date Firm Better Premier Napthine Andrews
Napthine Andrews Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
25–28 Nov 2014 Ipsos[1] 44% 42% 49% 40% 42% 43%
24–27 Nov 2014 Newspoll 41% 37% 41% 45% 38% 43%
26–27 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[3] 50.5% 49.5% not asked
25–26 Nov 2014 Galaxy[4] 41% 38% not asked
21–24 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[6] 51.5% 48.5% not asked
19–20 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[7] 47.5% 52.5% not asked
18–19 Nov 2014 Galaxy[8] 42% 30% not asked
7–10 Nov 2014 Roy Morgan[9] 51.5% 48.5% not asked
6–9 Nov 2014 Ipsos[10] 42% 39% 46% 37% 40% 37%
27–30 Oct 2014 Newspoll 47% 33% 46% 41% 36% 45%
24–27 Oct 2014 Roy Morgan[11] 52% 48% not asked
23–26 Oct 2014 Ipsos[12] 45% 36% 47% 38% 37% 42%
22–24 Oct 2014 Galaxy[14] 43% 27% not asked
26–29 Sep 2014 Roy Morgan[15] 51% 49% not asked
14–15 Aug 2014 Galaxy[14] 41% 33% not asked
Jul–Aug 2014 Newspoll 41% 31% 40% 43% 32% 41%
May–Jun 2014 Newspoll 42% 29% 44% 40% 35% 37%
26–27 Feb 2014 Galaxy[14] 40% 32% not asked
Jan–Feb 2014 Newspoll 39% 28% 43% 35% 32% 33%
21–Nov 2013 ReachTEL[16]† 47.5% 52.5% not asked
Sep–Oct 2013 Newspoll 41% 27% 42% 36% 35% 31%
Jul–Aug 2013 Newspoll 47% 25% 53% 31% 38% 32%
May–Jun 2013 Newspoll 49% 26% 53% 26% 35% 34%
30–May 2013 ReachTEL[17]† 51.6% 48.4% not asked
12–Apr 2013 ReachTEL[18]† 52% 48% not asked
Mar–Apr 2013 Newspoll 43% 24% 50% 19% 42% 28%
7–Mar 2013 ReachTEL[19]† 46.5% 53.5% not asked
6 March 2013 Napthine replaces Baillieu Baillieu Andrews Baillieu Andrews
22–Feb 2013 ReachTEL[20]† 41.3% 58.7% not asked
Jan–Feb 2013 Newspoll 38% 31% 31% 53% 30% 36%
25–Jan 2013 ReachTEL[21]† 44.4% 55.6% not asked
Nov–Dec 2012 Newspoll 39% 30% 33% 48% 32% 34%
Sep–Oct 2012 Newspoll 39% 30% 31% 53% 29% 36%
Jul–Aug 2012 Newspoll 40% 26% 32% 50% 28% 36%
5–13 June 2012 Roy Morgan[22] 41% 33.5% 29% 53.5% 28% 35%
Mar–Apr 2012 Newspoll 46% 23% 36% 45% 28% 35%
20–28 Mar 2012 Roy Morgan[22] 53.5% 22% 40% 38% 20% 36%
Jan–Feb 2012 Newspoll 51% 19% 41% 38% 23% 36%
Nov–Dec 2011 Newspoll 53% 18% 49% 33% 30% 32%
Sep–Oct 2011 Newspoll 56% 19% 52% 29% 29% 33%
Jul–Aug 2011 Newspoll 57% 16% 52% 29% 27% 34%
5–10 Apr 2011 Roy Morgan[22] 60% 14% 50.5% 23% 25% 26.5%
3 December 2010 Andrews replaces Brumby Baillieu Brumby Baillieu Brumby
30 Nov – 1 Dec 2010 Roy Morgan[22] 48.5% 25.5% 40% 13% 30% 31%
27 Nov 2010 election – – – – – –
23–25 Nov 2010 Newspoll 38% 48% 44% 44% 38% 52%
23–25 Nov 2010 Roy Morgan[22] 39% 43.5% 40% 39% 34% 46.5%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here Archived 23 March 2018 at the Wayback Machine

Polling that is conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

References

  1. 1 2 Gordon, Josh (28 November 2014). "Victorian election 2014: result likely to come down to the wire". The Age. Melbourne. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
  2. ↑ "7 News - Victorian poll - 27 November 2014". ReachTEL. 28 November 2014. Archived from the original on 5 December 2014. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
  3. 1 2 "ALP favoured to win Victorian Election but late surge to Liberals continues. A close election will be decided on minor party preferences". Roy Morgan Research. 28 November 2014. Retrieved 27 November 2014.
  4. 1 2 "Voters united in Link support". Herald Sun. 28 November 2014. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
  5. ↑ "Essential Report - Victorian State Election" (PDF). Essential Research. 28 November 2014. Archived from the original (PDF) on 5 December 2014. Retrieved 28 November 2014.
  6. 1 2 "Liberals fight-back in Victoria with a week to go as ALP & Greens drop". Roy Morgan Research. 24 November 2014. Retrieved 24 November 2014.
  7. 1 2 "Dan Andrews set to be new Victorian Premier in a week's time". Roy Morgan Research. 21 November 2014. Retrieved 21 November 2014.
  8. 1 2 "18/19 Nov 2014: Labor maintains lead". Galaxy Research. November 2014. Retrieved 21 November 2014.
  9. 1 2 "ALP increases lead and set to win Victorian Election with 3 weeks to go". Roy Morgan Research. 10 November 2014. Retrieved 15 November 2014.
  10. 1 2 Gordon, Josh (14 November 2014). "Victorian election: Poll shows Napthine government remains in losing position". The Age. Melbourne. Retrieved 14 November 2014.
  11. 1 2 "ALP set to win Victorian Election with a month to go". Roy Morgan Research. 27 October 2014. Retrieved 4 November 2014.
  12. 1 2 Gordon, Josh (30 October 2014). "Victoria state election poll shows Labor leading Napthine government". The Age. Melbourne. Retrieved 4 November 2014.
  13. ↑ "7 News - Victorian poll - 23 October 2014". ReachTEL. 24 October 2014. Retrieved 4 November 2014.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "LABOR MAINTAINS LEAD IN VICTORIA". Galaxy Research. October 2014. Retrieved 15 November 2014.
  15. 1 2 "ALP in 'Box Seat' for Victorian State Election. Coalition still ahead in NSW & Queensland". Roy Morgan Research. 1 October 2014. Retrieved 15 November 2014.
  16. 1 2 "7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - November 2013". ReachTEL. 25 November 2013. Retrieved 15 November 2014.
  17. 1 2 "7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - May 2013". ReachTEL. 3 June 2013. Retrieved 15 November 2014.
  18. 1 2 "7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - April 2013". ReachTEL. 14 April 2013. Retrieved 15 November 2014.
  19. 1 2 "7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - March 2013". ReachTEL. 8 March 2013. Retrieved 15 November 2014.
  20. 1 2 "7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - February 2013". ReachTEL. 24 February 2013. Archived from the original on 29 November 2014. Retrieved 15 November 2014.
  21. 1 2 "7 News Melbourne - Victorian State Poll - January 2013". ReachTEL. 27 January 2013. Archived from the original on 30 January 2013. Retrieved 15 November 2014.
  22. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "Victorian Coalition Lead Slightly Reduced - L-NP (52%) CF. ALP (48%)". Roy Morgan Research. 15 June 2012. Retrieved 15 November 2014.
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