2016 Virginia Democratic presidential primary

March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01)
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 62 33
Popular vote 504,741 276,370
Percentage 64.29% 35.20%

Results by county
Clinton:      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%      80-90%      >90%
Sanders:      50-60%      60-70%      80-90%

The 2016 Virginia Democratic presidential primary took place on March 1 in the U.S. state of Virginia as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, dubbed "Super Tuesday," Democratic primaries were held in ten other states plus American Samoa, while the Republican Party held primaries in eleven states including their own Virginia primary.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Primary results March 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64.3%
Bernie Sanders
35.2%
Other 0.5%
SurveyMonkey[1]

Margin of error: ?
Sample size: 908

February 22–29, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
7%
YouGov/CBS News[2]

Margin of error: 9.2%
Sample size: 471

February 22–26, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
2%
Monmouth[3]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

February 22–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
7%
Roanoke College[4]

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 415

February 16–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
17%
Public Policy Polling[5]

Margin of error: ± 4.4
Sample size: 500

February 14–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
56%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Christopher Newport University[6]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 735

February 3–14, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
8%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
University of Mary Washington[7]

Registered voters:
Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 357
Likely voters:
Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 276

November 4–9, 2015 Hillary Clinton
58% (RV)
63% (LV)
Bernie Sanders
32% (RV)
27% (LV)
Martin O'Malley
4% (RV)
5% (LV)
Don't know/None/Refused/Wouldn't vote in that primary
7% (RV)
5% (LV)
Christopher Newport University[8]

Margin of error: ± 5.1%
Sample size: 407

September 29 –October 8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
40%
Bernie Sanders
23%
Joe Biden
23%
Jim Webb 5%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Lincoln Chafee <1%, Someone Else 1%, Undecided/Don't Know/Refused 5%
Public Policy Polling[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 409

July 13–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
64%
Bernie Sanders
14%
Jim Webb
8%
Lincoln Chafee 5%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Not sure 7%
Christopher Newport University[10]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: ?

April 13–24, 2015 Hillary Clinton
80%
Jim Webb
6%
Joe Biden
5%
Bernie Sanders 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee<1%, Someone else 2%, Undecided 3%
Christopher Newport University

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: ?

January 30 – February 10, 2015 Hillary Clinton
65%
Jim Webb
10%
Joe Biden
8%
Elizabeth Warren 8%, Deval Patrick 2%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Andrew Cuomo 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Someone else 1%, Undecided 2%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Christopher Newport University

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 391

February 23–28, 2014 Hillary Clinton
66%
Joe Biden
19%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Undecided 9%
Polls in 2013
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
University of Mary Washington

Margin of error: ±?
Sample size: ?

September 25–29, 2013 Hillary Clinton
34%
Mark Warner
16%
Joe Biden
9%
Elizabeth Warren 3%, Andrew Cuomo 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, None 12%, Don't know 17%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ±5.2%
Sample size: 357

July 11–14, 2013 Hillary Clinton
51%
Joe Biden
14%
Mark Warner
11%
Elizabeth Warren 6%, Cory Booker 4%, Martin O'Malley 3%, Andrew Cuomo 2%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Kirsten Gillibrand 0%, Someone else/Undecided 8%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 421

May 24–26, 2013 Hillary Clinton
56%
Joe Biden
14%
Mark Warner
11%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Elizabeth Warren 3%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Deval Patrick 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Someone else/Undecided 10%
University of Mary Washington

Margin of error: ±?
Sample size: ?

March 20–24, 2013 Hillary Clinton
38%
Mark Warner
18%
Joe Biden
10%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Martin O'Malley 3%, Other 1%, None 12%, Don't know 12%

Results

Primary date: March 1, 2016
National delegates: 95

Virginia Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 504,741 64.29%
62
13
75
Bernie Sanders 276,370 35.20%
33
0
33
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 3,930 0.50%
Uncommitted
0
1
1
Total 785,041 100% 95 14 109
Source: The Green Papers, Virginia Department of Elections

Results by county/Independent cities

County[11] Clinton Votes Sanders Votes
Accomack72.0%1,79027.4%682
Albemarle54.6%8,28845.0%6,844
Alexandria69.5%16,31029.9%7,031
Alleghany63.3%43336.0%246
Amelia78.8%67121.0%179
Amherst65.2%1,04434.1%546
Appomattox67.0%44832.1%215
Arlington66.8%25,58232.8%12,566
Augusta48.0%1,63951.4%1,754
Bath63.0%14836.6%86
Bedford56.5%1,87642.9%1,424
Bland51.7%12547.1%114
Botetourt55.7%88843.6%695
Bristol56.3%42842.6%324
Brunswick89.7%1,35410.1%153
Buchanan70.3%52328.4%211
Buckingham76.6%90223.1%272
Buena Vista58.2%14241.0%100
Campbell65.8%1,29933.8%667
Caroline74.2%1,90225.1%642
Carroll57.1%60142.4%446
Charles City85.6%86414.0%141
Charlotte79.1%16220.2%162
Charlottesville46.3%3,88953.4%4,483
Chesapeake74.1%16,13325.5%5,558
Chesterfield66.0%22,61733.6%11,514
Clarke51.4%62547.7%581
Colonia Heights55.8%40743.4%316
Covington73.6%23725.5%82
Craig51.1%11348.0%106
Culpeper54.7%1,42144.4%1,154
Cumberland79.9%63919.8%158
Danville79.9%2,67719.6%656
Dickenson60.0%34638.7%223
Dinwiddie83.3%1,93516.2%375
Emporia88.7%40710.9%50
Essex82.1%64317.1%134
Fairfax (City)59.4%1,84140.2%1,246
Fairfax (County)63.0%88,14736.4%50,930
Falls Church61.2%1,58838.5%1,000
Fauquier54.5%2,86044.7%2,345
Floyd29.6%39670.1%936
Fluvanna57.6%1,35541.8%984
Franklin86.9%80412.4%115
Franklin62.6%1,67536.6%980
Frederick50.1%2,11449.1%2,072
Fredericksburg52.7%1,40046.7%1,241
Galax57.9%12941.3%92
Giles55.7%40543.6%317
Gloucester59.1%1,44840.5%993
Goochland71.5%1,57428.3%624
Grayson49.3%26550.0%269
Greene48.7%57950.8%603
Greensville87.7%83211.9%113
Halifax80.8%1,75618.6%403
Hampton77.9%13,54221.7%3,770
Hanover59.9%4,91639.7%3,255
Harrisonburg33.6%1,48266.1%2,914
Henrico69.8%28,17029.7%11,994
Henry72.7%1,81026.7%664
Highland49.4%8650.6%88
Hopewell77.4%1,17722.2%337
Isle of Wight73.9%2,44925.7%853
James City65.1%5,21334.3%2,752
King and Queen78.7%47720.8%126
King George59.4%91639.7%612
King William72.0%84326.9%315
Lancaster74.4%82324.8%275
Lee63.5%31734.1%170
Lexington61.2%40337.9%250
Loudoun58.6%21,18040.8%14,730
Louisa65.5%1,63034.1%849
Lunenburg83.5%73616.0%141
Lynchburg61.6%3,10538.2%1,923
Madison59.1%53840.7%370
Manassas58.0%1,81341.1%1,284
Manassas Park57.4%58142.2%427
Martinsville75.3%83423.8%264
Mathews63.2%43535.9%247
Mecklenburg80.3%1,58919.2%379
Middlesex64.4%50935.4%280
Montgomery40.7%3,50759.0%5,090
Nelson56.2%99243.1%761
New Kent67.8%95131.4%440
Newport News73.0%4,55326.6%4,553
Norfolk69.2%15,76030.5%6,936
Northampton72.5%86827.1%324
Northumberland75.1%82324.2%265
Norton53.8%8645.0%72
Nottoway78.1%82921.1%224
Orange59.9%1,32239.4%870
Page53.4%41146.0%353
Patrick48.9%36150.3%372
Petersburg85.4%4,10014.3%688
Pittsylvania75.2%2,37124.3%766
Poquoson46.5%29552.8%335
Portsmouth78.5%9,46921.1%2,541
Powhatan64.4%1,07935.3%592
Prince Edward75.9%1,36623.3%420
Prince George77.7%1,99422.1%566
Prince William63.9%26,44335.5%14,701
Pulaski58.3%83741.0%588
Radford41.6%47257.7%655
Richmond (City)60.6%21,82839.2%14,117
Richmond (County)80.1%33319.2%80
Roanoke (City)59.0%4,78440.8%3,302
Roanoke (County)54.3%3,32545.1%2,761
Rockbridge57.1%90242.8%676
Rockingham47.0%1,73552.6%1,943
Russell59.9%55738.8%361
Salem50.9%76548.4%727
Scott56.2%30542.9%233
Shenandoah50.5%96048.8%929
Smyth58.7%52740.2%361
Southampton83.8%1,19915.1%216
Spotsylvania60.4%5,39938.9%3,480
Stafford60.9%6,43938.2%4,042
Staunton44.8%1,11554.8%1,365
Suffolk79.5%7,53720.0%1,895
Surry81.8%81217.5%174
Sussex90.5%9579.3%98
Tazewell57.6%68340.6%481
Virginia Beach63.1%22,36236.6%12,983
Warren48.0%94251.4%1,008
Washington54.1%1,18545.0%984
Waynesboro50.3%78849.0%769
Westmoreland74.5%87925.0%295
Williamsburg49.0%1,15950.7%1,199
Winchester50.9%95048.4%903
Wise46.8%51952.3%579
Whythe55.3%52944.2%423
York61.4%3,29238.1%2,041
Total64.3%504,74135.2%276,370

Analysis

After losing the state badly to Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton won Virginia by 29 points against Bernie Sanders in 2016. Her victory was primarily delivered by African Americans who backed Clinton 84-16, and women, who backed Clinton over Sanders by a margin of 70-30. Clinton also won the white vote in Virginia, 57-42, which comprised 63% of the electorate in the State. Clinton swept all income levels and educational attainment levels.

Clinton won most of the major cities in Virginia. She won Alexandria and Fairfax by a wide margin. She also won the D.C. suburbs as a whole, 65-35. This region has a large population of college-educated whites as well as African Americans. Clinton won the Northern Virginia Exurbs 60-40. She performed well in more rural Central Virginia and western Virginia including the Shenandoah Valley, winning 54-43 over Bernie Sanders and carrying the city of Roanoke. Clinton also won the eastern region of Virginia, including the major city of Richmond, by a margin of 66-34. She won in the Tidewater region of Virginia 72-28.

References

  1. "Trump's Lead Looks Steady in Run-Up to Super Tuesday". Retrieved March 1, 2016.
  2. "CBS News 2016 Battleground TrackerVirginia". Retrieved February 28, 2016.
  3. "VIRGINIA: TRUMP, CLINTON LEAD PRIMARIES" (PDF).
  4. "RC Poll: Clinton, Trump hold leads in Virginia primary elections; Cruz, Rubio in tight battle for second".
  5. "Subject: Clinton leads in 10 of 12 Early March Primaries; Benefits From Overwhelming Black Support" (PDF).
  6. "Trump leads GOP field, with Rubio and Cruz next; Clinton leads Sanders among Virginia Democrats" (PDF).
  7. "VIRGINIA SURVEY 2015" (PDF). umw.edu. Retrieved November 17, 2015.
  8. "Clinton top choice among Virginia Democrats, but Biden performs better against Republicans" (PDF). Cnu.edu. Retrieved October 12, 2015.
  9. "Bush leads GOP Field in Virginia Poll" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. Retrieved July 16, 2015.
  10. "Bush tops Clinton in battleground Virginia; Republican 2016 field still largely wide open, while Democrats rally strongly around Clinton" (PDF). Cnu.edu. Retrieved July 11, 2015.
  11. "2016 March Democratic Presidential Primary".
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