2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary

April 26, 2016 (2016-04-26)
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 106 83
Popular vote 935,107 731,881
Percentage 55.61% 43.53%

Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

The 2016 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary was held on April 26 in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

The Democratic Party's primaries in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island were held the same day, as were Republican primaries in the same five states, including their own Pennsylvania primary. Despite winning the Pennsylvania primary, Clinton went on to lose the state to Republican candidate Donald Trump in the general election.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Official Primary results April 26, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55.6%
Bernie Sanders
43.5%
Other
0.9%
FOX 29/Opinion Savvy[1]

Margin of error: ± 3.2%
Sample size: 942

April 24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
7%
CPEC LLC[2]

Margin of error: ± 2.3%
Sample size: 665

April 22–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
63%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Public Policy Polling[3]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 728

April 22–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
9%
American Research Group[4]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

April 21-24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
4%
Harper Polling[5]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 641

April 21-23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
6%
CBS/YouGov[6]

Margin of error: ± 6.7%
Sample size: 831

April 20-22, 2016 Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided
6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[7]

Margin of error: ± 1.9%
Sample size: 734

April 18-20, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
5%
Monmouth[8]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample size: 302

April 17-19, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
9%
Franklin & Marshall College[9]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 510

April 11-18, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided
11%
FOX News[10]

Margin of error: ± 3.5%
Sample size: 805

April 4-7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
13%
Quinnipiac[11]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 514

March 30-April 4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
50%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Others / Undecided
6%
Harper[12]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 603

April 2-3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided
12%
Franklin & Marshall[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 408

March 14-20, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Others / Undecided
19%
Harper[14]

Margin of error: ± 5.3%
Sample size: 347

March 1-2, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided
16%
Franklin & Marshall College[15]

Margin of error: ± 3.1%
Sample size: 486

February 13–21, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
27%
Others / Undecided
25%
Robert Morris University[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 511

February 11–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
11%
Harper[17]

Margin of error: ± 3.8%
Sample size: 640

January 22–23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
55%
Bernie Sanders
28%
Martin O'Malley
4%
Undecided 13%
Franklin & Marshall[18]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 361

January 18–23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
29%
Martin O'Malley
2%
Other 7%, Undecided 16%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Franklin & Marshall[19]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 303

October 19–25, 2015 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
18%
Martin O'Malley
0%
Other 12%, Undecided 18%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 416

October 8–11, 2015 Hillary Clinton
40%
Bernie Sanders
22%
Joe Biden
20%
Lincoln Chafee 3%, Martin O'Malley 2%, Lawrence Lessig 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Not Sure 12%
Quinnipiac University[20]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%
Sample size: 462

August 7–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton
45%
Bernie Sanders
19%
Joe Biden
17%
Jim Webb 1%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 3%, Undecided 12%
Quinnipiac University[21]

Margin of error: ± 4.9%
Sample size: 402

June 4–15, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53%
Joe Biden
15%
Bernie Sanders
10%
Jim Webb 2%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Lincoln Chafee 0%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 385

May 21–24, 2015 Hillary Clinton
63%
Bernie Sanders
14%
Martin O'Malley
6%
Lincoln Chafee 3%, Jim Webb 3%, Not sure 12%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 4.8%
Sample size: 415

March 17–28, 2015 Hillary Clinton
48%
Elizabeth Warren
15%
Joe Biden
13%
Martin O'Malley 1%, Bernie Sanders 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Joe Biden
34%
Elizabeth Warren
27%
Martin O'Malley
4%
Bernie Sanders 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 3%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 25%
Quinnipiac University

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 392

January 22 – February 1, 2015 Hillary Clinton
54%
Elizabeth Warren
12%
Joe Biden
10%
Martin O'Malley 2%, Bernie Sanders 2%, Jim Webb 1%, Other 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Undecided 15%
Joe Biden
34%
Elizabeth Warren
21%
Martin O'Malley
5%
Jim Webb 4%, Bernie Sanders 3%, Other 2%, Wouldn't vote 5%, Undecided 26%
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 494

January 15–18, 2015 Hillary Clinton
58%
Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Bernie Sanders 5%, Martin O'Malley 1%, Jim Webb 1%, Someone else/Undecided 11%
Polls in 2014
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 382

May 30 – June 1, 2014 Hillary Clinton
65%
Joe Biden
9%
Andrew Cuomo
5%
Elizabeth Warren 5%, Cory Booker 4%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Brian Schweitzer 1%, Mark Warner 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Someone else/Not sure 10%
Franklin & Marshall College

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 524

March 25–31, 2014 Hillary Clinton
55%
Joe Biden
5%
Elizabeth Warren
4%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Howard Dean 0%, Other 5%, Undecided 29%
Franklin & Marshall College

Margin of error: ± 4.2%
Sample size: 548

February 18–23, 2014 Hillary Clinton
58%
Elizabeth Warren
7%
Joe Biden
6%
Andrew Cuomo 2%, Howard Dean 1%, Other 3%, Undecided 23%
Polls in 2013
Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling

Margin of error: ± 4.7%
Sample size: 436

November 22–25, 2013 Hillary Clinton
61%
Joe Biden
13%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Andrew Cuomo 3%, Cory Booker 2%, Kirsten Gillibrand 1%, Martin O'Malley 0%, Brian Schweitzer 0%, Mark Warner 0%, Someone Else/Undecided 9%

Results

Pennsylvania Democratic primary, April 26, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 935,107 55.61% 106 20 126
Bernie Sanders 731,881 43.53% 83 0 83
Rocky De La Fuente 14,439 0.86% 0 0 0
Total 1,681,427 100% 189 20 209
Source: The Green Papers, Pennsylvania State Elections Official Results

Results by county

County[22] Clinton % Sanders % Others Totals Turnout Margin
Adams3,86348.08%4,10151.04% 71 8,035 41.15% -2.96%
Allegheny123,71555.08%99,07844.11% 1,819 224,612 43.18% 10.97%
Armstrong2,99248.30%3,07349.60% 130 6,195 39.00% -1.31%
Beaver13,53156.92%9,87341.53% 369 23,773 40.41% 15.39%
Bedford1,38848.91%1,38748.87% 63 2,838 29.56% 0.04%
Berks21,06348.35%22,07850.68% 422 43,563 37.68% -2.33%
Blair3,96546.87%4,36051.54% 135 23,988 35.27% -4.67%
Bradford1,80948.88%1,83949.69% 53 3,701 35.49% -0.81%
Bucks46,91755.90%36,17343.10% 837 83,927 43.88% 12.80%
Butler8,79052.10%7,83346.43% 249 16,872 40.98% 5.67%
Cambria8,50747.16%9,02450.02% 509 18,040 39.64% -2.87%
Cameron18641.89%24054.05% 18 444 36.33% -12.16%
Carbon3,38448.73%3,46049.82% 101 6,945 38.13% -1.09%
Centre8,45844.72%10,33154.63% 123 18,912 41.15% -9.90%
Chester33,08255.62%26,19344.04% 204 59,479 46.05% 11.58%
Clarion1,52949.34%1,51148.76% 59 3,099 38.37% 0.58%
Clearfield3,19447.30%3,41450.56% 145 6,753 32.18% -3.26%
Clinton1,70448.63%1,73949.63% 61 3,504 39.02% -1.00%
Columbia2,50440.48%3,60158.21% 81 6,186 39.59% -17.73%
Crawford3,70748.69%3,78949.76% 118 7,614 39.39% -1.08%
Cumberland12,42151.54%11,51347.77% 168 24,102 45.45% 3.77%
Dauphin18,47456.82%13,78742.41% 250 32,511 36.26% 14.42%
Delaware46,25259.73%30,82439.80% 363 77,439 43.45% 19.92%
Elk1,60145.50%1,84652.46% 72 3,519 36.47% -6.96%
Erie20,39552.17%18,36246.97% 338 39,095 40.76% 5.20%
Fayette9,19557.69%6,46040.53% 285 15,940 32.70% 17.16%
Forest25152.07%22145.85% 10 482 37.28% 6.22%
Franklin4,70751.69%4,28247.02% 118 9,107 37.27% 4.67%
Fulton36648.87%36548.73% 18 749 28.81% 0.13%
Greene2,26852.55%1,92744.65% 121 4,316 34.27% 7.90%
Huntingdon1,30443.28%1,66655.29% 43 3,013 33.11% -12.01%
Indiana4,04950.34%3,83947.73% 156 8,044 40.04% 2.61%
Jefferson1,24943.89%1,50752.95% 90 9,712 29.30% -9.07%
Juniata66445.60%75451.79% 38 3,996 36.44% -6.18%
Lackawanna23,02056.52%17,30842.49% 402 40,730 45.36% 14.02%
Lancaster19,84047.97%21,32151.55% 197 41,358 40.14% -3.58%
Lawrence5,84558.64%3,98139.94% 142 9,968 36.39% 18.70%
Lebanon4,66949.88%4,59949.13% 93 9,361 35.78% 0.75%
Lehigh20,43052.40%18,33847.03% 224 38,992 35.66% 5.37%
Luzerne20,54251.94%18,54346.89% 462 39,547 37.49% 5.05%
Lycoming3,80843.94%4,73054.58% 128 8,666 39.29% -10.64%
McKean1,05346.18%1,19052.19% 37 2,280 31.50% -6.01%
Mercer6,53056.99%4,73941.36% 190 11,459 33.91% 15.63%
Miflin1,20148.29%1,24249.94% 44 2,487 32.93% -1.65%
Monroe8,16953.27%7,04245.92% 123 15,334 31.37% 7.35%
Montgomery75,62859.00%52,13240.67% 421 128,181 49.31% 18.33%
Montour84647.85%89050.34% 32 1,768 37.84% -2.49%
Northampton18,10451.18%16,94047.89% 328 35,372 37.27% 3.29%
Northumberland3,58248.92%3,63249.60% 108 7,322 33.78% -0.68%
Perry1,32942.60%1,75256.15% 39 3,120 43.59% -13.56%
Philadelphia218,95962.59%129,35336.98% 1,493 349,805 43.50% 25.62%
Pike2,00951.22%1,89448.29% 19 3,922 29.70% 2.93%
Potter40240.94%56057.03% 20 982 33.83% -16.09%
Schuylkill6,53451.30%6,04047.42% 164 12,738 37.61% 3.88%
Snyder1,12550.40%1,08148.43% 26 2,232 41.42% 1.97%
Somerset3,11448.18%3,20649.61% 143 6,463 35.95% -1.42%
Sullivan31250.16%29647.59% 14 622 40.65% 2.57%
Susquehanna1,68050.42%1,61048.32% 42 3,332 41.41% 2.10%
Tioga1,05543.20%1,35455.45% 33 2,442 34.07% -12.24%
Union1,62650.50%1,57949.04% 15 3,220 46.09% 1.46%
Venango2,02048.08%2,08749.68% 94 4,201 37.90% -1.59%
Warren1,83651.66%1,66546.85% 53 3,554 33.49% 4.81%
Washington15,87257.43%11,26240.75% 505 27,639 41.38% 16.68%
Wayne1,85947.44%2,02651.70% 34 3,919 39.12% -4.26%
Westmoreland25,00954.31%20,28644.05% 754 46,049 39.24% 10.26%
Wyoming1,12348.21%1,16850.42% 33 2,398 45.72% -2.21%
York18,45950.72%17,54448.21% 390 36,393 36.74% 2.51%
Total935,10755.61%731,88143.53% 14,439 1,681,427 41.39% 12.09%

Analysis

Clinton won a large victory over runner-up Bernie Sanders in Pennsylvania, replicating her 2008 performance against Barack Obama in the Keystone state. According to exit polls, Clinton won the white vote 51–47 (68% of the electorate), won the African American vote 70–30 (19% of the electorate), and won among women 60-39 (she lost men 50-49 to Sanders). While Sanders won among younger voters 63-37, Clinton won voters over the age of 45 66-33. Clinton swept all income and educational attainment levels except for whites without college degrees, whom Sanders won 50–49.

Clinton swept all political ideologies in the primary. She won Democrats 62-38 but lost self-identified Independents to Sanders 72–26.

Clinton also won among unions 56-43, a very important demographic in a big manufacturing state like Pennsylvania.

Clinton won large victories in all of Pennsylvania's major cities: she won in Philadelphia 63-37, the affluent Philadelphia suburbs 58-42, and also carried the cities of Pittsburgh and Erie. She won in Northeastern Pennsylvania 51-48, and in Western Pennsylvania 54-45. Sanders, for his part, did better in the rural parts of the state, winning rural voters 50–48 and carrying Central Pennsylvania 50-49.[23] Sanders swept many of the more remote and conservative counties of the state, including parts of Amish country such as Lancaster County.

Of her victory in the Keystone State, New York Times analyst Alan Rappeport commented, "Lots of Philadelphia history and imagery coming from Clinton now. It's almost as if she has her convention speech ready."[24]

References

  1. "Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Poll 4/25/16" (PDF). Opinion Savvy. April 25, 2016. Retrieved April 25, 2016.
  2. "Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Poll" (PDF). CPEC LLC. April 26, 2016. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
  3. "Clinton, Sanders close in CT/PA/RI; Trump Headed for Big Wins" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. April 25, 2016. Retrieved April 25, 2016.
  4. "2016 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary - Clinton 58%, Sanders 38% (ARG 4/21-4/24)". American Research Group. April 26, 2016. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
  5. "Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Poll". Harper Polling. April 26, 2016. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
  6. "Poll: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton lead in Pennsylvania, Indiana". Retrieved April 24, 2016.
  7. "Trump and Clinton Hold Strong Leads in Pennsylvania, New Poll Shows". Retrieved April 24, 2016.
  8. "PENNSYLVANIA: CLINTON LEADS SANDERS BY 13" (PDF). Retrieved April 20, 2016.
  9. "April 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll" (PDF). Retrieved April 21, 2016.
  10. "Fox News Poll: Trump holds huge lead in Pennsylvania, Clinton up over Sanders". Retrieved April 10, 2016.
  11. "Pennsylvania Quinnipiac University Poll March 30-April 4, 2016" (PDF). Retrieved April 6, 2016.
  12. "Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Poll April 2-3, 2016". Retrieved April 5, 2016.
  13. "March 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll" (PDF). Retrieved March 24, 2016.
  14. "PENNSYLVANIA STATEWIDE POLL REPUBLICAN AND DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES".
  15. "Franklin & Marshall February 13–21, 2016" (PDF).
  16. "2016 Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary – Clinton 48%, Sanders 41% (Robert Morris University 2/11-2/16)".
  17. Field, Nick. "Harper Poll: Clinton 55% Sanders 28%". Politics PA. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
  18. "January 2016 Franklin & Marshall College Poll" (PDF). Franklin & Martin. January 28, 2016. Retrieved February 5, 2016.
  19. "Franklin and Marshall College Poll: Survey of Pennsylvanians Summary of Findings" (PDF). Franklin & Marshall. October 29, 2015. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  20. "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). Quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved August 20, 2015.
  21. "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
  22. "Pennsylvania Elections - Summary Results".
  23. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved October 16, 2016.
  24. "Pennsylvania Primary Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved October 16, 2016.
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