2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

November 2, 2010
 
Nominee John Lynch John Stephen
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 239,390 205,433
Percentage 52.6% 45.1%

Lynch:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Stephen:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
     70–80%
Tie:      40–50%

Governor before election

John Lynch
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Lynch
Democratic

The 2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to his fourth and final term.[1]

New Hampshire is one of only two states where the Governor serves for a two-year term, the other being neighboring Vermont. Lynch was re-elected by landslide margins in 2006 and 2008, and enjoyed historically high approval ratings. In early 2010, his approval rating showed a downward trend, with an April poll indicating that his approval had fallen below 50% (44% approve, 42% disapprove).[2] After the primary elections in mid-September, Lynch's approval rating rebounded (51% approve, 38% disapprove).[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • John Lynch, incumbent Governor[4]
  • Timothy Robertson, state representative
  • Frank Sullivan

Results

Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Lynch (incumbent) 49,832 87.5
Democratic Timothy Robertson 3,771 6.6
Democratic Frank Sullivan 3,377 5.9
Total votes 56,980 97.3

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Frank Robert Emiro Sr., state representative
  • Jack Kimball, businessman[6]
  • John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner[7]
  • Karen Testerman, conservative activist[6]

Declined

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Jack
Kimball
John
Stephen
Karen
Testerman
Public Policy Polling September 11–12, 2010 24% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 15% 26% 5%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2010 10% 29% 15%

Results

Results by county:
  Stephen–60–70%
  Stephen–50–60%
  Stephen–40–50%
Republican primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Stephen 77,962 61.6
Republican Jack Kimball 31,581 24.9
Republican Karen Testerman 12,708 10.0
Republican Frank Emiro 4,394 3.5
Total votes 126,645 96.7

General election

Candidates

  • John Babiarz, Libertarian
  • John Lynch, Democratic
  • John Stephen, Republican

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[11] Tossup October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[12] Lean D October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[13] Lean D November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Lean D October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[15] Likely D October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
John
Lynch (D)
John
Stephen (R)
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2010 51% 45%
WMUR/UNH October 7–12, 2010 51% 38%
American Research Group October 3–5, 2010 51% 41%
Granite State Poll October 1, 2010 51% 34%
American Research Group September 22–26, 2010 42% 40%
Rasmussen Reports September 15, 2010 48% 46%
Public Policy Polling September 11–12, 2010 51% 39%
Rasmussen Reports August 5, 2010 50% 39%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 51% 34%
Rasmussen Reports May 26, 2010 47% 35%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2010 47% 36%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010 47% 37%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010 50% 35%
Granite State Poll January 27-February 3, 2010 50% 30%
Hypothetical polling
With Kimball
Poll Source Dates Administered John
Lynch (D)
Jack
Kimball (R)
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 52% 29%
Rasmussen Reports May 26, 2010 50% 31%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2010 47% 35%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010 50% 34%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010 51% 32%
Research 2000 February 1–3, 2010 59% 13%
Rasmussen Reports January 12, 2010 51% 32%
Rasmussen Reports September 14, 2009 52% 31%
With Morse
Poll Source Dates Administered John
Lynch (D)
Chuck
Morse (R)
Rasmussen Reports September 14, 2009 51% 29%
With Sununu
Poll Source Dates Administered John
Lynch (D)
John
Sununu (R)
Granite State Poll September 25-October 2, 2009 50% 37%
Rasmussen Reports September 14, 2009 48% 43%
With Testerman
Poll Source Dates Administered John
Lynch (D)
Karen
Testerman (R)
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 52% 28%
Rasmussen Reports May 26, 2010 51% 32%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2010 47% 29%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010 50% 33%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010 54% 28%
Rasmussen Reports January 12, 2010 53% 30%

Results

2010 New Hampshire gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Lynch (incumbent) 240,346 52.63% -17.57%
Republican John Stephen 205,616 45.03% +17.43%
Libertarian John Babiarz 10,089 2.21% +0.02%
Write-in 537 <0.01% N/A
Total votes 456,588 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that swung from Democratic to Republican

References

  1. "NH Gov. John Lynch Running for 4th Term - FOX44NOW.COM - Burlington/Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports". FOX44NOW.COM. Archived from the original on March 1, 2012. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  2. "Lynch Leads All Republicans for Re-election in N.H." (PDF). Public Policy Polling. April 23, 2010.
  3. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf
  4. "Gov. Lynch could face difficult re-election bid » New Hampshire » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. April 18, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  5. 1 2 "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. September 14, 2010. Retrieved September 14, 2010.
  6. 1 2 John Distaso (December 9, 2009). "Testerman steps into the ring in governor's race". The Union Leader. Archived from the original on February 20, 2010. Retrieved January 1, 2010.
  7. "John Stephen for Governor | New Leadership for New Hampshire". Johnstephen.com. Archived from the original on September 15, 2008. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  8. "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  9. "Frank Guinta for Congress". Teamguinta.com. July 29, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  10. "Downing runs for sheriff, Morse for NH Senate » Latest News » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. May 27, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  11. "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  12. "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  13. "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  14. "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  15. "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
Official campaign sites (Archived)
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