2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election

August 16, 2022

Alaska's at-large congressional district
Turnout32.16%[1]
 
Candidate Mary Peltola Sarah Palin Nick Begich III
Party Democratic Republican Republican
First round 74,817
39.7%
58,339
30.9%
52,536
27.8%
Final round 91,266
51.5%
86,026
48.5%
Eliminated

Peltola:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Palin:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. Representative before election

Don Young
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Mary Peltola
Democratic

The 2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election was held on August 16, 2022. Democrat Mary Peltola won the open seat, thereby becoming the first of her party to win a U.S. House election in Alaska since 1972. Peltola, who is a Yup'ik woman, is the first Alaska Native elected to Congress, and the first woman elected to represent Alaska in the House.[2] She defeated Republican former governor Sarah Palin in the state's first ranked-choice general election.

The seat became vacant when 49-year incumbent Republican representative Don Young died on March 18, 2022.[3] A special primary election was held on June 11, while the general election was held alongside the regular primary election on August 16. The filing deadline was on April 1.[4] This was the first election to use the state's new voting system, approved for use with 2020 Alaska Measure 2. Under the new system, all candidates compete in a single blanket primary, with the four candidates receiving the most votes advancing to the general election, which is conducted using instant-runoff voting.

The special primary election took place in June 2022, and the top four vote-getters were set to advance to a general election. The third-placed candidate in the primary, Al Gross, withdrew, so only the other three names were on the ballot in the general election. This election used ranked-choice voting, with the winner being the one who accumulated a majority of the votes (or a majority of votes in play at that point in time).

The runoff count commenced on August 31, after all absentee and overseas ballots were counted.[5][6] Peltola was declared the winner on August 31.[7] The Democratic victory was widely considered an upset due to Alaska's strong Republican lean. Peltola became the first Democrat to win a statewide or congressional election in Alaska since Mark Begich in 2008.[8] She was sworn in to the House of Representatives on September 13.[9]

Nonpartisan blanket primary

Candidates

Advanced to general election

Withdrew after advancing to general election

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Nick Begich (R)

State legislators

Organizations

Individuals

  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law.[33]
Santa Claus (I)

State legislators

Christopher Constant (D)

U.S. senators

  • Mark Begich, former United States senator (2009–2015)

State legislators

Local officials

Al Gross (I)

State officials

State legislators

Sarah Palin (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. federal legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Mary Peltola (D)

Individuals

Josh Revak (R)

Individuals

  • Anne Garland Young, Don Young's widow[39]
Tara Sweeney (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

  • Thomas J. Barrett, former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Transportation (2007–2009) and former United States Coast Guard admiral

State officials

Organizations

  • ANCSA Regional Association[40]

Debates and forums

2022 Alaska at-large special primary debates and forums
No. Date Host Moderator Link Participants
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee W  Withdrawn
Begich Coghill Constant Gross Lowenfels Palin Revak Peltola Sweeney
1[41] May 12, 2022 Alaska Chamber
Alaska Miners Association
Alaska Oil and Gas Association
Alaska Support Industry Alliance
Associated General Contractors of Alaska
Resource Development Council
N/A Youtube P P P P P P P P P

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Nick
Begich
(R)
Santa
Claus
(I)
John
Coghill
(R)
Christopher
Constant
(D)
Al
Gross
(I)
Andrew
Halcro
(I)
Jeff
Lowenfels
(I)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Mary
Peltola
(D)
Josh
Revak
(R)
Tara
Sweeney
(R)
Adam
Wool
(D)
Other Undecided
Alaska Survey Research May 6–9, 2022 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 16% 6% 2% 5% 13% 2% 3% 19% 5% 4% 4% 2% 4% 16%
Remington Research Group (R) April 7–9, 2022 955 (LV) ± 3.1% 21% 7% 26% 31% 3% 2% 4% 6%

Results

Primary election results by state house district
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special primary election results[42]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Sarah Palin 43,601 27.01
Republican Nick Begich 30,861 19.12
Independent Al Gross[lower-alpha 2] 20,392 12.63
Democratic Mary Peltola 16,265 10.08
Republican Tara Sweeney 9,560 5.92
Independent Santa Claus 7,625 4.72
Democratic Christopher Constant 6,224 3.86
Independent Jeff Lowenfels 5,994 3.71
Republican John Coghill 3,842 2.38
Republican Josh Revak 3,785 2.34
Independent Andrew Halcro 3,013 1.87
Democratic Adam Wool 2,730 1.69
Democratic Emil Notti 1,777 1.10
Libertarian Chris Bye 1,049 0.65
Democratic Mike Milligan 608 0.38
Independence John Howe 380 0.24
Independent Laurel Foster 338 0.21
Republican Stephen Wright 332 0.21
Republican Jay Armstrong 286 0.18
Libertarian J. R. Myers 285 0.18
Independent Gregg Brelsford 284 0.18
Democratic Ernest Thomas 199 0.12
Republican Bob Lyons 197 0.12
Republican Otto Florschutz 193 0.12
Republican Maxwell Sumner 133 0.08
Republican Clayton Trotter 121 0.07
Independent Anne McCabe 118 0.07
Republican John Callahan 114 0.07
Independent Arlene Carle 107 0.07
Independent Tim Beck 96 0.06
Independent Sherry Mettler 92 0.06
Republican Tom Gibbons 94 0.06
Independent Lady Donna Dutchess 87 0.05
American Independent Robert Ornelas 83 0.05
Independent Ted Heintz 70 0.04
Independent Silvio Pellegrini 70 0.04
Independent Karyn Griffin 67 0.04
Independent David Hughes 54 0.03
Independent Don Knight 46 0.03
Republican Jo Woodward 44 0.03
Independent Jason Williams 37 0.02
Independent Robert Brown 36 0.02
Independent Dennis Aguayo 31 0.02
Independent William Hibler III 25 0.02
Republican Bradley Welter 24 0.01
Independent David Thistle 23 0.01
Independent Brian Beal 19 0.01
Republican Mikel Melander 17 0.01
Total votes 161,428 100.0

General election

Under Alaska's top-four primary system, if a general election candidate drops out, the director of elections may replace them with the name of the fifth-place finisher. Shortly after the primary, Al Gross dropped out of the general election, but Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai did not advance Tara Sweeney in his place because there was less than 64 days remaining until the general election as required by law. After a lawsuit, the Alaska Supreme Court upheld Fenumiai's decision.[26]

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[43] Likely R August 10, 2022
Inside Elections[44] Likely R August 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] Safe R June 22, 2022

Endorsements

Nick Begich (R)

State legislators

Local Officials

  • Amy Demboski, Anchorage assembly member

Organizations

Individuals

  • Jim and Faye Palin, Sarah Palin's former father-in-law and mother-in-law
Sarah Palin (R)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. federal legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Mary Peltola (D)

U.S. federal legislators

State officials

State legislators

  • Zack Fields, state representative (2019–present)
  • Berta Gardner, former state senator (2013–2019) and representative (2005–2013)
  • Ivy Spohnholz, state representative (2016–present)

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Tribes

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Nick
Begich
(R)
Al
Gross
(I)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Mary
Peltola
(D)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research July 20–25, 2022 1,219 (LV) ± 2.9% 1 30% 29% 41%
2 55% 45%
2*[lower-alpha 3] 49% 51%
Alaska Survey Research July 2–5, 2022 1,201 (LV) ± 2.9% 1 31% 29% 40%
2 57% 43%
2*[lower-alpha 3] 49% 51%
June 21, 2022 Gross withdraws from the race
Alaska Survey Research May 6–9, 2022 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 1 29% 27% 26% 19%
2 33% 40% 28%
3 54% 46%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Nick
Begich
(R)
Santa
Claus
(I)
Christopher
Constant
(D)
Al
Gross
(I)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Tara
Sweeney
(R)
Undecided
Alaska Survey Research May 6–9, 2022 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 1 28% 21% 26% 25%
2 32% 40% 28%
3 53% 47%
3*[lower-alpha 4] 53% 47%
Alaska Survey Research May 6–9, 2022 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 1 29% 17% 27% 28%
2 32% 40% 28%
3 54% 46%
Alaska Survey Research May 6–9, 2022 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 1 28% 35% 26% 11%
2 32% 39% 29%
3 55% 45%
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin vs. Lora Reinbold vs. Josh Revak
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
RCV
count
Al
Gross
(I)
Sarah
Palin
(R)
Lora
Reinbold
(R)
Josh
Revak
(R)
Undecided
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] March 25–29, 2022 728 (LV) ± 3.6% BA 33% 30% 8% 9% 16%
2 33% 30% 11% 26%
3 35% 35% 30%
Al Gross vs. Sarah Palin
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Al
Gross (I)
Sarah
Palin (R)
Undecided
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] March 25–29, 2022 728 (LV) ± 3.6% 40% 42% 19%
Al Gross vs. Josh Revak
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Al
Gross (I)
Josh
Revak (R)
Undecided
Change Research (D)[upper-alpha 1] March 25–29, 2022 728 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 34% 31%

Results

Preference flow
2022 Alaska's at-large congressional district special election[1][52]
Party Candidate First Choice Round 1 Round 2
Votes  % Transfer Votes  % Transfer Votes  %
Democratic Mary Peltola 74,817 39.66% +982 75,799 40.19% +15,467 91,266 51.48%
Republican Sarah Palin 58,339 30.92% +634 58,973 31.27% +27,053 86,026 48.52%
Republican Nick Begich 52,536 27.84% +1,274 53,810 28.53% -53,810 Eliminated
Write-in 2,974 1.58% -2,974 Eliminated
Total votes 188,666 188,582 177,292
Blank or inactive ballots 3,707 +11,290 14,997
Democratic gain from Republican
First round results by state house district
District Nick Begich
Republican
Sarah Palin
Republican
Mary Peltola
Democratic
Write-in Margin [lower-alpha 5] Total votes
# % # % # % # % # %
District 1 1,448 33.42% 1,409 32.52% 1,432 33.05% 44 1.02% 16 0.37% 4,333
District 2 979 20.03% 1,504 30.78% 2,359 48.27% 45 0.92% 855 17.50% 4,887
District 3 1,522 23.28% 1,235 18.89% 3,723 56.94% 59 0.90% 2,201 33.66% 6,539
District 4 1,003 17.38% 701 12.15% 4,014 69.55% 53 0.92% 3,011 52.17% 5,771
District 5 929 23.05% 1,301 32.27% 1,743 43.24% 58 1.44% 442 10.97% 4,031
District 6 1,923 25.63% 2,468 32.90% 3,039 40.51% 72 0.96% 571 7.61% 7,502
District 7 1,673 30.99% 2,448 45.34% 1,213 22.47% 65 1.20% 775 14.35% 5,399
District 8 1,867 28.54% 3,216 49.17% 1,394 21.31% 64 0.98% 1,349 20.62% 6,541
District 9 2,684 32.55% 1,656 20.08% 3,722 45.13% 185 2.24% 1,038 12.59% 8,247
District 10 1,687 32.11% 1,370 26.08% 2,099 39.96% 97 1.85% 412 7.84% 5,253
District 11 2,054 33.11% 1,506 24.28% 2,537 40.90% 106 1.71% 483 7.79% 6,203
District 12 1,341 28.17% 1,114 23.40% 2,228 46.81% 77 1.62% 887 18.63% 4,760
District 13 1,096 27.41% 1,047 26.18% 1,791 44.79% 65 1.63% 695 17.38% 3,999
District 14 1,000 21.80% 897 19.56% 2,615 57.01% 75 1.64% 1,615 35.21% 4,587
District 15 1,884 32.62% 1,349 23.36% 2,439 42.23% 103 1.78% 555 9.61% 5,775
District 16 1,671 27.09% 1,138 18.45% 3,234 52.43% 125 2.03% 1,563 25.34% 6,168
District 17 905 18.96% 704 14.75% 3,066 64.25% 97 2.03% 2,161 45.28% 4,772
District 18 299 22.91% 360 27.59% 626 47.97% 20 1.53% 266 20.38% 1,305
District 19 536 20.93% 521 20.34% 1,465 57.20% 39 1.52% 929 36.27% 2,561
District 20 885 23.17% 924 24.19% 1,969 51.56% 41 1.07% 1,045 27.36% 3,819
District 21 1,528 28.67% 1,256 23.56% 2,469 46.32% 77 1.44% 941 17.65% 5,330
District 22 755 30.77% 682 27.79% 971 39.57% 46 1.87% 216 8.80% 2,454
District 23 1,909 32.15% 1,884 31.73% 2,044 34.43% 100 1.68% 135 2.27% 5,937
District 24 2,191 37.08% 1,945 32.92% 1,682 28.47% 91 1.54% 246 4.16% 5,909
District 25 2,070 33.93% 2,338 38.32% 1,624 26.62% 69 1.13% 268 4.39% 6,101
District 26 1,566 31.95% 2,398 48.92% 883 18.01% 55 1.12% 832 16.97% 4,902
District 27 1,410 30.78% 2,303 50.27% 809 17.66% 59 1.29% 893 19.49% 4,581
District 28 1,683 32.88% 2,402 46.92% 979 19.12% 55 1.07% 719 14.05% 5,119
District 29 1,834 32.35% 2,390 42.15% 1,395 24.60% 51 0.90% 556 9.81% 5,670
District 30 1,581 26.73% 2,729 46.14% 1,542 26.07% 63 1.07% 1,148 19.41% 5,915
District 31 953 26.64% 1,144 31.98% 1,407 39.33% 73 2.04% 263 7.35% 3,577
District 32 562 26.53% 929 43.86% 581 27.43% 46 2.17% 348 16.43% 2,118
District 33 1,117 27.45% 2,145 52.72% 743 18.26% 64 1.57% 1,028 25.26% 4,069
District 34 1,411 25.52% 1,966 35.56% 2,041 36.91% 111 2.01% 75 1.36% 5,529
District 35 1,182 20.90% 1,453 25.69% 2,911 51.48% 109 1.93% 1,458 25.78% 5,655
District 36 1,485 26.61% 1,979 35.46% 2,030 36.37% 87 1.56% 51 0.91% 5,581
District 37 599 28.62% 563 26.90% 908 43.38% 23 1.10% 309 14.76% 2,093
District 38 289 15.17% 269 14.12% 1,327 69.66% 20 1.05% 1,038 54.49% 1,905
District 39 635 28.01% 391 17.25% 1,185 52.27% 56 2.47% 550 24.26% 2,267
District 40 389 26.46% 303 20.61% 549 37.35% 229 15.58% 160 10.88% 1,470
Overseas voters 1 3.13% 2 6.25% 29 90.63% 0 0.00% 27 84.38% 32
Totals 52,536 27.85% 58,339 30.92% 74,817 39.66% 2,974 1.58% 16,478 8.73% 188,666
Final round results by state house district
District[53][lower-alpha 6] Mary Peltola
Democratic
Sarah Palin
Republican
Margin[lower-alpha 5] Total active votes
# % # % # %
District 1 1,894 49.17% 1,958 50.83% 64 1.66% 3,852
District 2 2,739 59.34% 1,877 40.66% 862 18.67% 4,616
District 3 4,250 68.59% 1,946 31.41% 2,304 37.19% 6,196
District 4 4,408 79.74% 1,120 20.26% 3,288 59.48% 5,528
District 5 2,123 56.05% 1,665 43.95% 458 12.09% 3,788
District 6 3,562 50.10% 3,548 49.90% 14 0.20% 7,110
District 7 1,643 33.34% 3,285 66.66% 1,642 33.32% 4,928
District 8 1,822 30.05% 4,241 69.95% 2,419 39.90% 6,063
District 9 4,536 58.81% 3,177 41.19% 1,359 17.62% 7,713
District 10 2,661 53.83% 2,282 46.17% 379 7.67% 4,943
District 11 3,148 54.23% 2,657 45.77% 491 8.46% 5,805
District 12 2,694 59.43% 1,839 40.57% 855 18.86% 4,533
District 13 2,172 57.07% 1,634 42.93% 538 14.14% 3,806
District 14 3,013 68.93% 1,358 31.07% 1,655 37.86% 4,371
District 15 3,031 55.99% 2,382 44.01% 649 11.99% 5,413
District 16 3,847 65.67% 2,011 34.33% 1,836 31.34% 5,858
District 17 3,475 76.12% 1,090 23.88% 2,385 52.25% 4,565
District 18 727 58.39% 518 41.61% 209 16.79% 1,245
District 19 1,675 68.28% 778 31.72% 897 36.57% 2,453
District 20 2,331 63.64% 1,332 36.36% 999 27.27% 3,663
District 21 2,969 58.68% 2,091 41.32% 878 17.35% 5,060
District 22 1,240 53.54% 1,076 46.46% 164 7.08% 2,316
District 23 2,570 46.28% 2,983 53.72% 413 7.44% 5,553
District 24 2,203 40.27% 3,267 59.73% 1,064 19.45% 5,470
District 25 2,126 37.60% 3,529 62.40% 1,403 24.81% 5,655
District 26 1,175 25.63% 3,409 74.37% 2,234 48.73% 4,584
District 27 1,151 26.88% 3,131 73.12% 1,980 46.24% 4,282
District 28 1,397 29.23% 3,383 70.77% 1,986 41.55% 4,780
District 29 1,855 34.74% 3,484 65.26% 1,629 30.51% 5,339
District 30 1,942 34.88% 3,626 65.12% 1,684 30.24% 5,568
District 31 1,752 52.24% 1,602 47.76% 150 4.47% 3,354
District 32 777 38.66% 1,233 61.34% 456 22.69% 2,010
District 33 1,006 26.18% 2,837 73.82% 1,831 47.65% 3,843
District 34 2,470 47.43% 2,738 52.57% 268 5.15% 5,208
District 35 3,373 62.13% 2,056 37.87% 1,317 24.26% 5,429
District 36 2,462 47.19% 2,755 52.81% 293 5.62% 5,217
District 37 1,157 59.79% 778 40.21% 379 19.59% 1,935
District 38 1,490 80.41% 363 19.59% 1,127 60.82% 1,853
District 39 1,507 74.35% 520 25.65% 987 48.69% 2,027
District 40 863 65.13% 462 34.87% 401 30.26% 1,325
Overseas voters 29 90.63% 3 9.38% 26 81.25% 32
Totals 91,265 51.48% 86,024 48.52% 5,241 2.96% 177,289

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. withdrew from the general election following his victory in the primary
  3. 1 2 Hypothetical scenario with Palin and Peltola as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  4. Hypothetical scenario with Claus and Palin as the top two based on expressed ranked choice preferences
  5. 1 2 Margin is the difference between the number of votes won by the winning candidate and the number of votes won by the candidate who won the second-largest number of votes.
  6. Results from unofficial tabulation of the raw Cast Vote Record file.
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which supports Gross

References

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  2. Rockey, Tim. "Peltola to become first Alaska Native, first female Alaska congresswoman". Alaskasnewssource.com. Archived from the original on September 1, 2022. Retrieved September 1, 2022.
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