2016 California Democratic presidential primary

June 7, 2016 (2016-06-07)
 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 254 221
Popular vote 2,745,302[1] 2,381,722
Percentage 53.07% 46.04%

Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

The 2016 California Democratic presidential primary was held on June 7 in the U.S. state of California as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

The Democratic Party's primaries in Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota were held the same day, as were Republican primaries in the same five states. Additionally, the Democratic Party held North Dakota caucuses the same day.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
California Secretary of State Primary results June 7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53.1%
Bernie Sanders
46.0%
Others
0.9%
CBS News/YouGov[2]

Margin of error: ±5.0%
Sample size: 674

May 31-June 3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided 4%
American Research Group[3]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 400

May 31 –
June 2, 2016
Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided
5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[4]

Margin of error: ±4.2%
Sample size: 557

May 29–31, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
47%
Others / Undecided 4%
Field[5]

Margin of error: ±4.1%
Sample size: 571

May 26–31, 2016 Hillary Clinton
45%
Bernie Sanders
43%
Others / Undecided 12%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[6]

Margin of error: ± 2.9%
Sample size: 1,500

May 19–31, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
13%
SurveyUSA[7]

Margin of error: ±%
Sample size: 803

May 19–22, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Undecided 4%
PPIC[8]

Margin of error: ±5.7%
Sample size: 552

May 13–22, 2016 Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
44%
Undecided 10%
Hoover Institution State Poll[9]

Margin of error: ±3.47%
Sample size: 1,700

May 4–16, 2016 Hillary Clinton
51%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
11%
Sextant (D)/Capitol Weekly[10]

Margin of error: ±2.3%
Sample size: 1,617

April 28-May 1, 2016 Hillary Clinton
49%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
12%
SurveyUSA/KABC/SCNG[11]

Margin of error: ± %
Sample size: 826

April 27–30, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
38%
Others / Undecided
6%
FOX News[12]

Margin of error: ± 4%
Sample size: 623

April 18–21, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
46%
Others / Undecided
6%
CBS News/YouGov[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 1,124

April 13–15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
52%
Bernie Sanders
40%
Others / Undecided
8%
Gravis Marketing[14]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 846

April 7–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
12%
Field[15]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample size: 584

March 24 - April 4, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
12%
SurveyUSA[16]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: 767

March 30 - April 3, 2016 Hillary Clinton
53%
Bernie Sanders
39%
Others / Undecided
8%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[17]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 832

March 16–23, 2016 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
36%
Others / Undecided
17%
PPIC[18]

Margin of error: ± 6.2%
Sample size: 529

March 6–15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
48%
Bernie Sanders
41%
Others / Undecided
11%
Field Poll[19]

Margin of error: ± 5.6%
Sample Size: 329

January 6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
46%
Bernie Sanders
35%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Undecided 18%
Polls in 2015
Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Field Poll[20]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 391

September 17 – October 4, 2015 Hillary Clinton
47%
Bernie Sanders
35%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Jim Webb 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Other 2%
Undecided 14%
Hillary Clinton
40%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Joe Biden 15%
Martin O'Malley 1%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Jim Webb 1%
Other 2%
Undecided 12%
USC/LA Times[21]

Margin of error: ± 3.6%
Sample size: ?

August 29 – September 8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
42%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Other/NA 16%
Undecided 16%
Hillary Clinton
39%
Bernie Sanders
23%
Joe Biden 11%
Other/NA 11%
Undecided 16%
Field Poll[22]

Margin of error: ± 7.0%
Sample size: 356

April 23 – May 16, 2015 Hillary Clinton
53%
Elizabeth Warren
13%
Joe Biden 6%
Bernie Sanders 5%
Jim Webb 1%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Lincoln Chafee 0%
Undecided/other 22%
Emerson College[23]

Margin of error: ± ?
Sample size: 487

April 2–8, 2015 Hillary Clinton
56%
Elizabeth Warren
11%
Joe Biden 8%
Bernie Sanders 3%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Jim Webb 1%
Andrew Cuomo 0%
Other 2%
Undecided 17%
Field Poll [24]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 425

January 26 – February 16, 2015 Hillary Clinton
59%
Elizabeth Warren
17%
Joe Biden 9%
Bernie Sanders 6%
Jim Webb 2%
Others <0.5%
Undecided 7%

Results

Sanders won eight Congressional districts, including the Latino-heavy 34th district in Los Angeles, represented by Clinton supporter Rep. Xavier Becerra. In the 28th district the candidates were separated by just 67 votes, which covers the Los Angeles suburbs of Glendale and Burbank, and is represented by Rep. Adam Schiff.[25]

 2016 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in California
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 2,745,302 53.07% 254 66 320
Bernie Sanders 2,381,722 46.04% 221 0 221
Willie Wilson 12,014 0.23%
Michael Steinberg 10,880 0.21%
Rocky De La Fuente 8,453 0.16%
Henry Hewes 7,743 0.15%
Keith Judd 7,201 0.14%
Write-in 23 0.00%
Uncommitted 10 10
Total 5,173,338 100% 475 76 551
Source: California Secretary of State - Presidential Primary Election Statement of Votes The Green Papers

Results by county

County[26] Clinton  % Sanders  % Others % Totals Turnout (%) Margin %
Alameda164,88951.5%153,95548.0% 1,5770.5%320,42110,9343.4%
Alpine11344.8%13754.4% 20.8%25224-9.5%
Amador2,51650.4%2,38647.8% 881.8%4,9901302.6%
Butte11,76637.0%19,73962.0% 3151.0%31,8207,973-25.1%
Calaveras2,97149.5%2,91448.5% 1232.0%6,008570.9%
Colusa83549.3%80947.8% 482.8%1,692261.5%
Contra Costa103,33356.7%77,86242.7% 1,0820.6%182,27725,47114.0%
Del Norte1,11940.4%1,59857.6% 552.0%2,772479-17.3%
El Dorado12,49249.1%12,62049.6% 3131.2%25,425128-0.5%
Fresno45,43656.0%34,66342.7% 9981.2%81,09710,77313.3%
Glenn91146.8%1,00351.5% 341.7%1,94892-4.7%
Humboldt8,13528.7%19,92870.4% 2400.8%28,30311,793-41.7%
Imperial9,84365.0%5,11133.7% 1901.3%15,1444,73231.2%
Inyo1,00142.5%1,31355.7% 441.9%2,358312-13.2%
Kern28,80654.1%23,37443.9% 1,0542.0%53,2345,43210.2%
Kings4,15057.8%2,86939.9% 1652.3%7,1841,28117.8%
Lake3,98842.7%5,19555.7% 1481.6%9,3311,207-12.9%
Lassen81242.6%1,02353.7% 703.7%1,905211-11.1%
Los Angeles780,01354.4%639,88644.6% 14,7681.0%1,434,667140,1279.8%
Madera5,80853.1%4,85244.4% 2792.6%10,9399568.7%
Marin43,28356.4%33,21443.3% 2600.3%76,75710,06913.1%
Mariposa1,10244.1%1,35554.2% 441.8%2,501253-10.1%
Mendocino6,04832.8%12,25966.5% 1190.6%18,4266,211-33.7%
Merced10,83953.0%9,27345.3% 3391.7%20,4511,5667.7%
Modoc28142.3%34952.5% 355.3%66568-10.2%
Mono79943.3%1,03856.2% 100.5%1,847239-12.9%
Monterey29,73052.8%26,07346.3% 5130.9%56,3163,6576.5%
Napa13,58353.4%11,68245.9% 1900.7%25,4551,9017.5%
Nevada8,17536.9%13,82762.4% 1480.7%22,1505,652-25.5%
Orange171,59351.9%156,23547.3% 2,7670.8%330,59515,3584.6%
Placer25,24954.1%20,91644.8% 4901.1%46,6554,3339.3%
Plumas1,21144.1%1,47553.7% 622.3%2,748264-9.6%
Riverside112,52656.1%85,91842.8% 2,1971.1%200,64126,60813.3%
Sacramento109,89854.6%89,42844.4% 1,9331.0%201,25920,47010.2%
San Benito4,11254.3%3,38044.6% 831.1%7,5757329.7%
San Bernardino96,07654.6%77,70644.2% 2,1941.2%175,97618,37010.4%
San Diego215,65551.6%199,71647.7% 2,9090.7%418,28015,9393.8%
San Francisco116,35953.6%99,59445.9% 9610.4%216,91416,7657.7%
San Joaquin38,21256.5%28,52342.2% 8791.3%67,6149,68914.3%
San Luis Obispo21,63746.7%24,37952.6% 3460.7%46,3622,742-5.9%
San Mateo79,75658.7%55,36740.8% 7050.5%135,82824,38918.0%
Santa Barbara31,92746.9%35,71752.4% 4740.7%68,1183,790-5.6%
Santa Clara159,48057.5%116,19341.9% 1,8400.7%277,51343,28715.6%
Santa Cruz29,52040.5%42,94059.0% 3770.5%72,83713,420-18.4%
Shasta7,80945.4%9,02652.4% 3772.2%17,2121,217-7.1%
Sierra22442.5%29756.4% 61.1%52773-13.9%
Siskiyou2,46638.0%3,89460.0% 1261.9%6,4861,428-22.0%
Solano34,23155.3%27,12243.8% 5270.9%61,8807,10911.5%
Sonoma55,59547.3%61,16752.0% 8030.7%117,5655,572-4.7%
Stanislaus24,35951.2%22,38447.1% 7981.7%47,5411,9754.2%
Sutter4,02352.7%3,46345.4% 1461.9%7,6325607.3%
Tehama2,37245.9%2,65551.4% 1362.6%5,163283-5.5%
Trinity67235.1%1,21163.3% 311.6%1,914539-28.2%
Tulare13,47254.4%10,83443.7% 4681.9%24,7742,63810.6%
Tuolumne3,43348.2%3,59250.5% 911.3%7,116159-2.2%
Ventura60,61551.2%56,75147.9% 1,0150.9%118,3813,8643.3%
Yolo17,65548.2%18,76151.3% 1900.5%36,6061,106-3.0%
Yuba2,38845.1%2,77152.4% 1322.5%5,291383-7.2%
Total2,745,30253.1%2,381,72246.0% 46,3140.9%5,173,338363,5807.0%

Analysis

Clinton won the California primary, after Bernie Sanders had made a very serious play for the state and barnstormed it before election day. Sanders was significantly behind in the overall race by the time California voted (June 7, 2016), and it would have been hard for him to win the nomination by that point unless he persuaded Superdelegates to switch their support to him at the convention. He hoped a California win would assist in that effort. He rallied large numbers of supporters across the state, but in the end his barnstorming did not prevail, with Clinton winning by seven points (more than most polls predicted). She won in all the major cities: Sacramento, San Francisco, San Jose, Fresno, Los Angeles, and San Diego; Sanders did well in the northernmost counties bordering Oregon where he had won the month before.[27] After Sanders' disappointing loss, Rose Kapolczynski, an advisor to Barbara Boxer, described the primary results: "You can have a lot of excitement and a compelling message and inspire people, but if they don’t show up to vote, it doesn’t matter. Sanders did have very impressive rallies all over the state, but were those people turning around and calling their neighbors and taking action to get other people to vote for Sanders?"[28]

For her part, Clinton had campaigned aggressively for the state's diverse electorate, with Spanish, Korean, Vietnamese, Tagalog, and Chinese-language ads being aired by her campaign on the airwaves and on TV to make a play for both Latino and Asian American voters.[29]

Clinton was declared the presumptive winner of the democratic nomination by multiple news outlets on June 6, the night before the California primary.[30][31][32][33] She had previously not had enough delegates, and the declaration that she had clinched the nomination was based on a survey of superdelegates, not on votes. This announcement being made the night before a primary as large as California's was considered controversial, and may or may not have affected voter turnout the next day.[34]

References

  1. "California Secretary of State - Semi-Official Primary Results". ca.gov. Archived from the original on June 8, 2016. Retrieved June 17, 2016.
  2. "Poll: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders down to the wire in California". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved June 7, 2016.
  3. "California 2016 Primary Forecasts". ARG. January 12, 2016. Retrieved June 7, 2016.
  4. "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll June 2016 California Questionnaire". scribd.com. Retrieved June 1, 2016.
  5. "California's Democratic Presidential Primary Tightening. Clinton's Lead Over Sanders Declines to Two Points. State Republicans Appear to Be Warming to Trump's Candidacy". Archived from the original on June 2, 2016. Retrieved June 2, 2016.
  6. "NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll June 2016 California Questionnaire". scribd.com. Retrieved June 3, 2016.
  7. "Hillary Clinton poised to defeat Bernie Sanders in California's presidential primary, SurveyUSA poll shows". ABC News. Retrieved May 23, 2016.
  8. "Californians and Their Government May 2016 Full Crosstabs – Likely Voters Only" (PDF). PPIC Statewide Survey. Retrieved May 26, 2016.
  9. "Poll: Clinton up 13 over Sanders in Calif". May 31, 2016. Retrieved May 31, 2016.
  10. "Capitol Weekly California Statewide Dem Primary April 28-May 1, 2016" (PDF). Retrieved May 4, 2016.
  11. "California voters resigned to vote for Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, SurveyUSA poll shows". Retrieved May 2, 2016.
  12. "Fox News Poll: California Presidential Primaries". Fox News. April 22, 2016. Archived from the original on April 23, 2016. Retrieved April 22, 2016.
  13. "Poll: Clinton keeps New York edge, leads Sanders in California". CBS News. Retrieved April 17, 2016.
  14. "California Democratic Primary Polling". Retrieved April 20, 2016.
  15. "Sanders gaining on Clinton in California poll". Retrieved April 8, 2016.
  16. In CA, 47% of Registered Voters and 15% of Likely GOP Primary Voters Have 'Extremely Negative' View of Trump; Still He Leads Cruz Narrowly; Clinton Atop Sanders in Democrat Primary; Harris & Sanchez Likely To Advance for Boxer's Seat; CA's Vital 55 Electoral Votes Stay Blue in 2016 (Report). SurveyUSA. April 5, 2016. Retrieved April 5, 2016.
  17. "As California primary nears, even Sanders supporters are uniting behind Clinton and against a common enemy: Trump". Los Angeles Times. March 28, 2016. Retrieved March 29, 2016.
  18. "Californians and Their Government - March 2016 Full Crosstabs - Likely Voters Only" (PDF). Retrieved March 24, 2016.
  19. DiCamillo, Mark (6 January 2016). "Clinton Maintains 11-Point Lead Over Sanders Among Likely Voters in California's Democratic Presidential Primary. Both Candidates Are Highly Regarded" (PDF). Field Research Corporation. Archived from the original (PDF) on 16 January 2016. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
  20. "Sanders gains on Clinton". sacbee.com. Archived from the original on October 10, 2015. Retrieved October 7, 2015.
  21. "Trump and Clinton lead presidential contenders in California". news.usc.edu/. Retrieved September 13, 2015.
  22. "Field Poll Online" (PDF). field.com. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 28, 2015. Retrieved July 9, 2015.
  23. "2016 California Presidential Republican Primary – Bush 17%, Walker 17%". Emerson College. Archived from the original on November 7, 2016. Retrieved January 22, 2016.
  24. "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on February 20, 2015. Retrieved February 19, 2015.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  25. Weigel, David. "One month later, California finishes its vote count, and Clinton wins". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved January 23, 2021.
  26. "Presidential election results" (PDF). Elections.
  27. "California Primary Election Results". Retrieved August 7, 2016.
  28. Times, Los Angeles (June 8, 2016). "How Hillary Clinton won California". Los Angeles Times. Retrieved August 7, 2016.
  29. "Hillary Clinton Campaign Launches New Asian American Ads". AAPI for Hillary. May 27, 2016. Archived from the original on October 11, 2016. Retrieved August 31, 2016.
  30. "AP count: Clinton has delegates to win Democratic nomination". ap.org. Archived from the original on May 1, 2017. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  31. "Clinton clinches Democratic nomination". politico.com.
  32. Bump, Philip (June 6, 2016). "Analysis - Hillary Clinton just clinched the Democratic nomination. Here's the math behind it" via www.washingtonpost.com.
  33. Chozick, Amy; Healy, Patrick (June 6, 2016). "Hillary Clinton Has Clinched Democratic Nomination, Survey Reports". The New York Times.
  34. "No one wanted Hillary Clinton to win this way". msnbc.com.
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